Month: January 2024

Our Climate Crisis

Last year, more than 40% of the Earth’s surface was at least 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer beyond the pre-industrial era. This warming has not been evenly distributed around the globe. Roughly one-fifth has already warmed by more than 2 degrees Celsius and around 5% of the planet has warmed more than 3 degrees Celsius. A fast-warming area around the Arctic, stretching into Canada and the American Midwest, is testing the limits of human infrastructure and the ability of the natural world to cope.

After the surprising rise in global temperatures in 2023, some scientists are already speculating: 2024 could be even hotter. That’s because the planet-warming El Niño climate pattern in 2023 is nearing its peak and may continue for the first half of this year. Correspondingly, vast swaths of Earth’s oceans were record-warm for most of 2023, and it would take just as many months for them to release that heat.

Based on the USDA’s 2023 plant hardiness zone map data, Rockingham County shifted from zone 6b to zone 7a—with an average temperature rise of four degrees. The map developers cautioned against attributing the hardiness zone update alone as an accurate indicator of climate change, which is based on trends in overall average temperatures recorded over long time periods.

Extreme draught has dramatically lowered the water levels in the lakes that provide water for the operation of the Panama Canal. This has reduced daily traffic through the canal by nearly 40% compared with last year. This is causing ships to divert to longer ocean routes, which increases both costs and carbon emissions.

Politics and Policy

In a big win for climate activists, the Department of Energy announced that it will pause approvals for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals for several months while it studies the potential climate impacts. Over the past decade, the United States has become the world’s largest exporter LNG and the industry is poised for massive growth.

The Biden administration laid out strict rules for tax credits to produce ​“green” hydrogen, a fuel that could help decarbonize essential industries like steelmaking and shipping. The production must use zero-carbon power delivered from where it’s generated to where it’s consumed and comes from newly built resources rather than existing ones. This will favor states like Texas that have lots of new solar and wind projects in the pipeline.

The state of Washington’s cap on carbon, signed into law in 2021, establishes a statewide limit on greenhouse gas emissions and has already raised $2.2 billion for climate action. It funds initiatives such as better public transit, home weatherization and electrification, and reductions in emissions from industry. Now a wealthy hedge fund manager is funding a petition drive to repeal the law over its minimal effect on higher gas prices.

Kenya launched a national “e-mobility” program last year. The goal is to incentivize the common ‘boda-boda’ motorbike taxis and three-wheeled ‘tuk-tuks’, or auto rickshaws, to go electric. These vehicles, which run on diesel and gasoline, are notorious for causing air pollution in Nairobi and other cities. This program is the centerpiece of a move to make transport green and reduce air pollution.

The Environmental Protection Agency is proposing steep new fees on wasteful methane emissions from large US oil and gas facilities. This is part of a global push to curb methane emissions, a climate super-pollutant and it comes as the US is seeing record gas and oil production.

A tug-of-war is going on in the state legislature over whether Virginia stays the course of the energy transition laid out 2020-2021 or rolls it back hard. Republicans are introducing bills to roll back those laws, which are being defeated by the Democratic majority. Democratic proposals to strengthen them also face a veto by Gov. Youngkin that they will not be able to override. That will be the likely outcome of the proposed Democratic budget language forcing the governor to keep Virginia in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative carbon market.

Energy

Germany’s greenhouse gas emissions hit a 70-year low last year as it reduced its reliance on coal. Emissions from industry also fell significantly, largely due to a decline in production by energy-intensive companies. Electricity generation from renewable sources was more than 50% of the total for the first time, while coal’s share dropped to 26%. This puts the country in line with its target to produce 80% of its electricity from wind and solar by 2030.

The Chinese automaker BYD topped Tesla in 2023 to become the world’s largest EV manufacturer. The company, which is also a top battery manufacturer, recently broke ground on its first sodium-ion battery plant. Sodium offers a cheaper alternative to lithium but has a lower energy density. Sodium-ion batteries will be most useful in low-cost small cars or two-wheelers that don’t need the higher energy density.

US battery storage capacity for the electrical grid is poised for a record year in 2024 and now makes up 21% of new additions to the grid. Texas and California will continue to lead in new additions, after installations reached a new record last quarter.

The world may have a real chance of tripling renewable energy by 2030, the goal set at the COP28 climate change conference. Success in meeting that goal will, however, depend on scaling up financing for emerging and developing economies. The largest growth in renewables is taking place in China, which commissioned as much solar in 2023 as the entire world did in 2022, while their wind power additions rose by 66% year-over-year.

A huge underground hydrogen battery is being built in Utah. Two caverns, each as deep as the Empire State Building is tall, are being created from a geological salt formation on the site of a former coal power plant. The electricity used to create the green hydrogen will come from solar and wind power with no planet-warming emissions. The power plant it supplies will initially run a mix of natural gas and up to 30% hydrogen. Getting to 100% hydrogen in 20 years will require a major rebuild of the plant.

Natural hydrogen, a potential clean energy source, may be more plentiful than realized and a green replacement for fossil fuels. Well-funded efforts to drill for the gas are now underway around the globe. Skeptics say its large-scale use may not be practical or cost-effective and that unleashing it into the atmosphere could have unintended consequences.

Climate Justice

Aside from the destruction, death, and human misery created, a preliminary study shows the extent of the planet-warming emissions generated during the first two months of the war in Gaza. Those emissions were greater than the annual carbon footprint of more than 20 of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations. This is an instance of the exceptionalism that allows militaries to pollute with impunity.

In a third round of funding for clean school buses, the Environmental Protection Agency awarded nearly $1 billion in grants to 280 school districts to help them go electric. This is a big win for the environment and for school children that are harmed by diesel pollution from buses, especially children of color and those in low-income areas.

With the Mountain Valley Pipeline approaching the final stretch, it might seem hardly worth continuing to fight against it. Yet, as one young woman says, “We cannot let them destroy our land and water.” Furthermore, the pipeline is six years behind schedule, about half a billion dollars over budget, and delayed once again. A goal of those continuing the fight is to make building pipelines so time-consuming and expensive that companies and politicians will think twice about building any more.

Climate Action

Virginia ranks fourth nationwide in the number of electric school buses either on the road or on order despite any specific state funding. It is happening through the resourcefulness of school districts and advocates by plugging into federal dollars, forming public-private ventures, and buying buses directly.

Amid concerns about climate change, demand for rail service in Europe is strong, and both governments and private investors are trying to keep up. Cities could see a flurry of new rail connections in the next few years, as governments and private investors strive to keep up with strong demand.

To slash carbon emissions, a growing number of colleges and universities are installing geoexchange systems (also known as ground source geothermal district heating and cooling) that work like a heat storage bank. In summer, heat is drawn out of warm buildings through air-conditioning and transferred to water, which is sent into pipes in a closed loop network deep underground. This warmed water is then used for heating during the winter months.

Rooftop solar and a heat pump system is being installed on the Pentagon, one of the world’s largest buildings. It will power over 95% of space heating and hot water heating, currently powered by natural gas and oil, with an estimated annual total energy cost reduction of $1.36 million.

If you think you need another car you might consider an e-bike instead. E-bike sales in the United States surged 269% between 2019 and 2022 and part of their appeal is their functionality. Think of it as a cheap second car rather than an expensive bike. It’s good for the environment and you may help change your community’s car-centric ways.

There are several good reasons to install a bidet on your toilet. It helps to save our environment, it’s less expensive, and it’s better than toilet paper in cleaning your tush. You’ll never want to go back to trying to clean yourself with messy toilet paper. We Americans flush the equivalent of millions of trees down the toilet each year and much of this comes from clear-cutting Canada’s boreal forests.

Local Climate News

The City of Harrisonburg received the SolSmart Silver award getting national attention for its work to remove administrative and permit barriers. Keith Thomas, the sustainability and environmental manager for the city, said they started installing solar on city buildings and are doing general community outreach to get more awareness out about solar.

The Rockingham County Board of Supervisors voted 4-1 against bringing a demand-response transportation pilot project to the county in 2024. Valley Interfaith Action, a large local community organization, had been advocating for the service because a lack of transportation is a primary expressed need of area residents. The Supervisors did agree to study the matter to be in a better position to pursue a transit program in 2025.

A bioretention basin was installed at Trinity Presbyterian Church in Harrisonburg to capture and filter stormwater runoff from their building and parking lot. The Harrisonburg Conservation Assistance Program funded about 75% of the cost. An educational sign next to the basin explains how it works and its environmental benefits.

Earl Zimmerman
CAAV Steering Committee

If negative news about climate change is immediately followed with information explaining how individuals, communities, businesses, or governments can reduce the threat, then this information can empower rather than discourage us.  —Katherine Hayhoe

Our Climate Crisis

Leading scientists warn that it’s “becoming inevitable” that countries will miss the ambitious target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius that they set eight years ago at the Paris Climate Agreement. That target is slipping out of reach and recent studies suggest that the 1.5 degree threshold will arrive in about six years if we keep burning carbon at current rates.

Hurricanes and flooding, made more severe by climate change, have sent Texas homeowner insurance rates skyrocketing. Rates have increased 22% on average in 2023, twice the national rate. More billion-dollar disasters have occurred in Texas in 2023 than in any other year on record.

The COP28 UN Climate Change Conference

After intense negotiations more than 190 nations at the COP28 UN Climate Change Conference accepted a text that calls on the world to “transition away” from fossil fuels. This was a significant historic first step as past climate conferences had not even mentioned fossil fuels. The big question is if it will spell the eventual end of gas, oil and coal in a time frame that halts the worst effects of global warming.

The conference began with various significant pledges to address our climate crisis but countries have been notorious for not following up on their commitments at past climate conferences. The commitments made at COP28 include:

• The U.S. pledged $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund, the United Nations’ flagship climate fund, but this is contingent on congressional approval.
• Some of the world’s largest fossil fuel companies pledged to reduce methane emissions to near-zero by 2030.
• The U.S. joined dozens of other nations in committing to phase out most coal-fired electric power plants.
• Nearly two dozen countries pledged to triple their use of nuclear energy.
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced new standards to limit methane emissions at oil and gas wells.
• The United Arab Emirates set up a $30 billion fund to invest in clean energy and other climate projects worldwide.
• Government, corporate and philanthropic interests coalesced on a call for a binding global agreement to curb methane emissions.
• The U.S. and Canada created a Rail Decarbonization Task Force to develop a U.S.-Canada rail sector net-zero climate model by 2025.
• The International Monetary Fund said that carbon pricing through regulatory compliance, rather than taxes, would raise trillions needed to tackle climate crisis.

Oil firms and lobby groups were out in force at the conference. The oil cartel OPEC even had its own pavilion. Their language of  “lower carbon energy” typically means continuing to produce and use oil and gas—but with somewhat cleaner extraction and processing methods.

The conference provided a roadmap for reducing climate pollution from food and agriculture, a source of about a third of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. It, however, falls short by prioritizing incremental change over wholesale shifts in agriculture, such as moving away from industrialized farming and toward an approach that promotes biodiversity and carbon storage by integrating crops with surrounding ecosystems.

Politics and Policy

The Biden administration proposes giving subsidies to support the development of “sustainable aviation fuels,” capable of powering jet engines from biofuels engineered out of soybeans, animal fat, and conventional types of corn ethanol. They say the program would make the airline industry cleaner while bringing prosperity to rural America. But environmentalists and some scientists express reservations because studies have found that corn-based ethanol gasoline additives actually exacerbate greenhouse gas emissions.

Two new Virginia delegates from Prince William County have joined forces to sound the alarm over the rapid growth of the data center industry. The industry’s growth is pressuring electric utilities to procure new sources of electricity and build lines to transmit a power load growing by 5% a year. Environmental and community groups say residential utility ratepayers should not have to pay the cost of those new generating and transmission facilities and that it is thwarting the state’s renewable energy goals by their continued reliance on fossil fuels.

The Prince William County Board of Supervisors approved a project, which would bring as many as 37 data centers built on about 2,000 acres. The project drew significant community opposition from residents concerned about the environmental impact of the project, including noise and the need for electricity and high-voltage transmission lines. The data centers are projected to generate hundreds of millions of dollars annually in tax revenue for the county.

The CEO of The Clermont Foundation, a Virginia research farm, opposes changing a Clark County ordinance to prohibit solar development because it would block agrivoltaics, which allow power production alongside farming operations.

Energy

The growth in renewables is soaring and the transition to electric vehicles is well underway, but it’s still not enough.  Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels were expected to rise by 1.1% in 2023. Those increased emissions come largely from India and China, which continue to burn even larger amounts of coal to generate more electricity, as well as increased emissions from increases in flying and international shipping.

Harrisonburg’s 2022 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Report is now available. Total emissions were a 4.6% decrease from the 2016 baseline level. The commercial and transportation sectors respectively accounted for 31% and 28% of these emissions, followed by the residential sector and natural gas leakage both at 12.7%. The dominant fuel source for the community emissions was electricity at 38%.

Oil companies offered $382 million for drilling rights in the Gulf of Mexico in the last of several offshore oil and gas lease sales mandated under the 2022 climate law. The lease sale was required under a compromise with Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia who cast the deciding vote in favor of the landmark climate law. Manchin insisted that the government must offer at least 60 million acres of offshore oil and gas leases in any one-year period before it can offer offshore wind leases that are part of its strategy to fight climate change.

The United States produced more oil and gas than ever before in 2023. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that the U.S. produced an average of 12.8 million barrels of crude oil per day through the first three quarters of 2023, more than double the 2010 average of 5.5 million. And even more crude oil production is forecast for this year—an average of 13.1 million barrels a day, driven by export demand.

The U.S. offshore wind industry is eying a brighter 2024 after progress slowed in 2023 when offshore developers canceled several contracts due to soaring inflation, interest rate hikes and supply chain problems, which increased project costs. The  industry is expected to play a major role in helping several states and U.S. meet goals to decarbonize the power grid.

Climate Justice

An international team of researchers has found that air pollution from fossil fuel use is killing about 5 million people worldwide every year, a death toll much higher than previously estimated. Phasing out fossil fuel use could reduce air pollution mortality by about 61%.

Severe droughts and more frequent and intense cyclones, induced by rising temperatures, are threatening staple foods for hundreds of millions of people in Africa. In response, scientists, government officials and farmers are reviving neglected crops and other measures to boost agricultural productivity. But only a trickle of global climate mitigation funds and almost no private capital are directed to the small farmers who produce the vast majority of the continent’s food.

Frequent natural disasters and rising sea levels have made Bangladesh one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. It is estimated that by 2050, one in every seven Bangladeshis will be displaced due to climate change—that’s 13.3 million people. The long-awaited fund to pay for loss and damage caused by climate change that countries agreed to launch at COP28 is a hopeful step in addressing this looming crisis.

Communities of color in the U.S. are most affected by climate impacts. A recent poll correspondingly shows that Black voters are more concerned about climate change than the national average, less polarized, and more likely to take action to support climate policy.

Americans who switch to more climate-friendly heating systems, solar panels, cars or stoves are now able to claim thousands of dollars from the U.S. government. Some of that money has been in the form of tax credits but that will change in 2024 as more rebates will be taken off at the point of sale. This will be a boon to lower income households whose income is not enough to take advantage of the tax credits.

Climate Action

A new study from the University of Oxford finds that pathways to bring greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero that are heavily dependent on carbon capture and storage will cost at least $1 trillion more per year than scenarios involving renewable energy. The researchers advised that carbon capture and storage should only be used in very select industries in which abating climate pollutants is especially hard.  

A U.S. Department of Energy study shows that, deployed at mass scale, geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) could decarbonize heating and cooling and save energy in U.S. buildings while reducing the need for new grid transmission. Coupled with building envelope improvements, retrofitting around 70% of U.S. buildings with GHPs could reduce electricity demand by as much as 13% by 2050.

Members of Valley Interfaith Action (VIA) are lobbying the Rockingham County Board of Supervisors to approve on-demand public transit in Rockingham County. A state ‘demonstration grant’ would cover 80% of the $1 million program costs for the first year. VIA is  also engaging with area corporations and businesses to help raise $200,000 as a local match.

Rising sea levels caused by climate change are exacerbating severe flooding in Miami. Xavier Cortada, a Miami-based artist and climate advocate, wants every resident to know how high above sea level their homes sit. He therefore recruited hundreds of students, homeowners and shopkeepers to display their elevations in their front yards and store windows to spark conversations about potential flood damage and skyrocketing insurance rates.

Food manufacturers, restaurants, and supermarkets are racing to cater to people demanding lower-carbon eating choices and eschewing plastic packaging, ingredients flown in from afar, and foods that are environmentally damaging to produce. While climate-based eating might be in its infancy, it is expected to grow as younger consumers increase their concern for the planet.

Earl Zimmerman
CAAV Steering Committee