Month: February 2020

Politics and Policy

A poll, conducted by Climate Nexus, the Yale University Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication found that climate change is the second-most important issue for Democratic voters in 26 states, behind only health care.  Umair Irfan of Vox evaluated presidential contender Mike Bloomberg’s record and plans on climate change.  On Thursday, the top two senators on the U.S. Senate energy committee unveiled a bipartisan energy legislation package, called the American Energy Innovation Act, that would support renewable energy, efficiency measures, and nuclear power.  The Trump administration announced on Wednesday that it will resume coal leasing on public lands.  On the other hand, a federal judge in Idaho ruled Thursday that a Trump administration policy limiting public input on oil and gas leasing decisions was “arbitrary and capricious,” overturning the 2018 directive and voiding nearly 1 million acres of leases out West as a result.  Climate change could become a “catastrophic” threat to global security, as people lose their livelihoods, fall ill, and battle over scarce water and food, a host of U.S. security, military, and intelligence experts warned in a report by the Center of Climate and Security.  A new paper in the journal Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development reported that almost 60% of Americans support making fossil fuel companies pay for a portion of the damages to local communities caused by global warming. 

In a yet-to-be-released report, Climate Works Australia has found that the country can achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 with known technologies, provided the electricity market is 100% renewables by 2035 and other benchmarks are achieved.  The EU plans to impose costs on imports from other countries based on the carbon emissions associated with those imports in order to protect EU industries from competitors in countries with less stringent climate policies.  Incoming UN special envoy on climate action, Mark Carney, has told banks and investors that every private finance decision must take into account climate change and how to decarbonize the world economy to net zero.  The world’s financial services sector risks losses of up to $1 trillion if it fails to respond quickly to climate change and is hit by policy shifts such as the introduction of a carbon tax, a new report by consultants Oliver Wyman shows.  EU countries need to invest to prepare their transport infrastructure for the impacts of climate change or face hundreds of millions of dollars in repair costs, a U.N. regional commission said in a new report.

Virginia lawmakers have given final approval to a measure that will make the state a full participant in the Regional Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Initiative (RGGI), a multistate carbon cap-and-trade program.  In an opinion piece in The New York Times (NYT), Justin Gillis brought us up to date on the status of the Transportation and Climate Initiative, which is patterned after RGGI and involves the same states, but with a focus on lowering GHG emissions from transportation rather than electricity.  Under legislation that passed through both houses of the Virginia General assembly, state agencies cannot grant leases or easements for any pipelines or other infrastructure for oil and gas produced offshore under a permit or lease from the federal government.  The oil and gas industry substantially rewards U.S. legislators with campaign donations when they oppose environmental protections, according to a new analysis of congressional votes and political contributions published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).  Writing in Scientific American, the authors of a recent study in Nature exploring fossil-fuel subsidies argue that the funding of them must end.

In an opinion piece for the NYT, Australian physician Lisa Pryor wrote: “The question I have been asking myself is, what does it matter that I accept the science of climate change if I continue to live my life as if climate change were a hoax?  Who cares how many people accept the data if we are still consuming, traveling, investing, eating, dressing, voting and planning for the future as if global warming were imaginary?”  Similarly, the Los Angeles Times took both President Trump and the oil companies to task over their “fig-leaf solutions” for the climate crisis.  So how can you tell whether a proposal is likely to be effective?  Ensia asked experts and came up with three criteria that are good starting places for separating legitimate climate plans from false and hollow claims.  JPMorgan Chase, the world’s largest financier of fossil fuels, has warned clients that the climate crisis threatens the survival of humanity and that the planet is on an unsustainable trajectory, according to a leaked report obtained by The Guardian.  And, at Rolling Stone, Bill McKibben had an article entitled “How JPMorgan Chase Became the Doomsday Bank.” 

Climate and Climate Science

According to new research published Tuesday in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, the world’s major wind-driven ocean currents are moving toward the poles, potentially depriving important coastal fishing waters of nutrients and raising the risk of sea level rise, extreme storms, and heatwaves for some adjacent land areas.  Climate change could add around $100 billion, or more than 20%, to the annual global cost of extreme weather events by 2040, Cambridge University said on Wednesday.

In a paper published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change, nearly two dozen Arctic experts described how over the last three years, Alaska’s northwestern coast has experienced a series of unusual climate-related changes.  Grist had an interesting article about paralytic shellfish poisoning, caused by saxitoxin produced by the algae Alexandrium catenella, which appears to be increasing in frequency as Alaskan waters warm, putting indigenous people in danger.  In 2014-2016 unusual warming of the northern Pacific, referred to as “the Blob” led to widespread die-offs of sea birds, whales, and other sea mammals.  Now, scientists are concerned there may be a repeat of the phenomenon this summer.

The Great Barrier Reef is still at risk of a widespread outbreak of coral bleaching despite a cyclone to the far west helping to temporarily cool stressed corals.  Climate scientists have concluded that the recent bushfires in Australia were more catastrophic than any simulation of our changing climate predicted.

If you would like to hone your debate skills, Jeff Berardelli, a meteorologist with CBS news, has prepared an excellent piece entitled “10 common myths about climate change – and what science really says.”

In an essay at Yale Climate Connections, Kristen Pope summarized the findings of two studies involving penguins, one in Global Change Biology about emperor penguins and one in PNAS about chinstrap and gentoo penguins.  Emperor penguins are expected to fare far less well than the other two as the climate warms.

Energy

Last week, Dominion Energy notified PJM, the regional electric grid operator from which Virginia gets its energy, that it plans to deactivate its two coal-fired units at the Chesterfield Power Station and Birchwood Power Partners announced plans to close its King George facility.  The closures will take more than 1.2 GW of coal-fired energy offline.  The Virginia State Corporation Commission has approved three battery-storage pilot projects proposed by Dominion Energy.

If you are interested in buying an electric vehicle (EV), you might have a hard time finding one.  E&E News investigated why.  The Los Angeles Department of Transportation will add 155 electric buses to the city’s fleet over the next two years, officials said Thursday.  A looming problem for battery-powered EVs is that cobalt, which is essential in the production of today’s lithium-ion batteries, is in limited supply.

Foresight Climate and Energy provided an in-depth analysis of H₂ as an energy carrier.  The UK is about to experiment with a H₂ fuel cell train.  Anglo American, ENGIE, and Williams Advanced Engineering are working together to create the world’s largest H₂-powered mining truck capable of performing just as well, if not better, than its diesel-powered counterparts. 

Recently, researchers from Carnegie Mellon, Princeton, and Stanford Universities released a comprehensive study on the environmental, social, and economic impacts of industrial fracking on the Appalachian Basin.  Their findings were summarized in Eos, a publication of the American Geophysical Union, a professional society.

For years the U.S. military has blocked the installation of off-shore wind turbines on the coast of California.  Although much remains to be worked out, it appears that a deal will be reached to allow them off the central part of the state.  Because of the water depth, they are likely to be the nation’s first floating turbines.

Potpourri

Bill McKibben had a lengthy essay, “A Very Hot Year,” in The New York Review of Books.  A new book by Michael T. Klare, entitled All Hell Breaking Loose: The Pentagon’s Perspective on Climate Change looks at climate change from the perspective of people in the military.  Alex Ward interviewed the author for Vox.  Perhaps you’ve been offered the opportunity to buy carbon offsets along with your airplane ticket to help reduce the climate impact of your flight.  Vox had an article explaining them.  Carbon Brief had a fact-check on the carbon footprint of streaming video on Netflix.  Seems as if some recent “news” was off-the-mark.  There is a list of all the cli-fi books that Amy Brady has reviewed at Bookshop.org.  At Chicago Review of Books, Amy Brady interviewed author Anne Charnock about Bridge 108, which “reveals how large, systemic problems like economic stratification and climate change are tightly entwined.”  The Tyee’s Andrew Nikiforuk spent two days with the globally bestselling botanist, author, and filmmaker Diana Beresford-Kroeger.  Their conversation was so rich it merited five parts, ranging “from plant medicine to climate change to healing the planet and the human heart.”  Greta Thunberg’s mother, Malena Ernman, had an edited extract in The Guardian from the family’s new book Our House Is on Fire: Scenes of a Family and a Planet in Crisis, which focuses on Greta’s “transformation from bullied teenager to climate icon.”

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

Politics and Policy

When it comes to coping with and preparing for the impacts of sea level rise, Miami and Miami Beach get most of the press.  As a consequence, we tend to overlook the many other coastal cities faced with similar problems.  The Washington Post addressed this by publishing an article about Boston that made clear just how complicated the issue is.  In an opinion piece in the same newspaper, New Orleans architects and planners Steven Bingler and Martin C. Pedersen argue that one option that must be considered for coastal cities is retreat.  President Trump’s fiscal 2021 budget would slash funding for the National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers, eliminating all $38 million for research to help wildlife and humans “adapt to a changing climate.”  Mandy Gunasekara, who urged President Trump to exit the Paris climate agreement as the EPA’s top air-policy adviser, is poised to return to the agency as its next chief of staff.

Democratic presidential candidates discussed climate change for about 15 minutes during the Wednesday night debate in Las Vegas.  Marianne Lavelle of Inside Climate News summarized what the candidates had to say.  Also on Wednesday, the Center for Biological Diversity Action Fund ranked Michael Bloomberg and Amy Klobuchar last among the candidates on their plans to address climate change, giving each a score of 1 out of 10.  Vox published a list of five things to know about how Bernie Sanders plans to deal with the climate crisis as president.  Rather than focusing on curtailing fossil fuel use, as the Democrats do, Republican lawmakers want to continue their use, but employ carbon capture and storage technology.  The plan was immediately condemned by the powerful Club for Growth PAC and elicited grumbles from a handful of Republican lawmakers.  Amazon founder Jeff Bezos said Monday that he plans to spend $10 billion of his own fortune to help fight climate change.  A new study from the Pew Research Center found that the partisan divide over climate change is the largest it has ever been.

Sarah Vogelsong provided a list of “Ten Things to Know about the [Virginia] Clean Economy Act.”  If state Senators act on either of two bills from the House, Virginians would be allowed to buy 100% renewable energy from competitive service suppliers — no matter what programs their utilities offer.  On his blog, James A. Bacon examined a report from Rocky Mountain Institute assessing Dominion’s plans to become net-zero by 2050.  In a move to protect its ski slopes and growing economy, Utah has created a long-term plan to address the climate crisis.  Writing in The Atlantic, Robinson Meyer asserted that in the past few years, the American Petroleum Institute and its allies have begun working at the local level, fighting against climate-friendly policies in at least 16 different states.

A study published in the journal Nature Energy cautioned that the negative impacts associated with climate change are insufficiently accounted for in financial markets, raising the possibility of a severe recession in response to serious climate problems.  A commission, convened by the World Health Organization, UNICEF, and the journal Lancet, found that every country in the world is failing to shield children’s health and their futures from intensifying ecological degradation and climate change.  The Fifth National Climate Assessment is scheduled for release in 2022, about halfway through President Trump’s potential second term.  Planning for the report is already underway, with a project leader expected to be chosen within a few months.  The White House stands to have an influential role in the report’s construction through the Office of Science and Technology Policy.

Climate and Climate Science

According to NOAA scientists, January 2020 recorded the highest global average temperature for January in 141 years of record keeping.  In a stirring photo-essay for The New York Times, Damien Cave wrote of “The End of Australia as We Know It.”  At National Geographic, Madeline Stone explained how climate change may have caused the locust plague in East Africa.  She also described the various factors and events that may have led to record or near-record temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula,.

A new study, published in the journal Nature, concluded that “natural” emissions of fossil methane are lower than had been thought.  Assuming that estimates of total fossil methane emissions are correct, this suggests that emissions of fossil methane from coal, oil, and gas operations are larger than previously thought.  Some take issue with that assumption.  A second study, published in Science, found that “minimal” methane was emitted from permafrost and geologic seepage as Earth was emerging from the last ice age.

In a 2016 book, naturalist E. O. Wilson proposed that half of Earth be set aside for natural systems.  Now many people, both scientists and non-scientists, are working to bring that idea to fruition.  Two scientific studies of the number of insects splattered by cars have revealed a huge decline in abundance at European sites in two decades.  Scientists and conservationists have warned that if high ocean temperatures in the region do not drop in the next two weeks, the Great Barrier Reef could experience its third major coral bleaching incident in five years.  In addition, climate change could destroy nearly all remaining coral reefs by the end of the century, according to research released Monday at the AGU Ocean Sciences Meeting 2020 in San Diego.

In an article in the journal Science, two USGS researchers wrote “The Colorado River Basin loses progressively more water to evaporation, as its sunlight-reflecting snow mantle disappears.”  As a result, the annual-mean discharge has been decreasing by 9.3% per °C of warming.  Because of heavy rains, major flooding occurred in central Mississippi and southern Tennessee.  In addition, Storm Dennis caused widespread flooding across England, Wales and Scotland.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is the current that carries warm water north and cold water south, maintaining the mild climate in the UK and northern Europe.  While there have been some studies that suggest the AMOC is slowing, exactly what is happening is unclear.  Wired presented a summary of the research efforts underway to better understand the AMOC.

Energy

At Yale Environment 360, journalist Lois Parshley explored the question of whether small modular nuclear reactors have a place in the power mix of the future.  Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly evaluate how to develop, build and operate small modular nuclear reactors, which TVA is considering building near ORNL.  In the wake of the shutdown of many of its nuclear energy plants, Japan is implementing a 4-D energy transition, creating a distributed, decarbonized, decentralized, and digitized grid.

Tensions are high in Canada over a controversial pipeline project as protesters enter their 12th day blockading railways and demonstrating on streets and highways.  The CBC provided background on the controversy.  In the U.S., FERC delayed a vote on a similar proposed natural gas pipeline and marine export terminal in Oregon.  In California, utilities argue that ramping up the production of renewable natural gas and blending it with normal natural gas in pipelines can reduce GHGs faster and cheaper than electrifying buildings.  David Roberts examined this argument at Vox.

New reports from the Brattle Group and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory with the ClimateWorks Foundation examined the feasibility and costs of meeting the climate goals of the six New England states and California, respectively.  E&E News characterized it as a “steep path.” 

Delta Air Lines said on Friday that it will invest $1 billion over the next decade in initiatives that would limit the impact of global air travel, which accounts for roughly 2% of global CO₂ emissions, on the environment.  The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday announced a goal for biofuels to make up 30% of U.S. transportation fuels by 2050.

Power-generating capacity from renewable energy — including solar, wind and utility-scale hydropower — has doubled in the U.S. since 2010, according to a new report from BloombergNEF and the Business Council for Sustainable Energy.  As we move into a new decade, the question is whether the growing U.S. energy storage industry will be able to maintain its current path of rapid growth.  Ricardo F. Rodriguez of Navigant Research argued that all signs suggest that it will.

Potpourri

In a YouTube video, MIT students perform “Heal! — A Battle Poem for the Climate and Its Defenders.”  On a related note, students are stepping up the pressure on universities to pull investments from fossil fuel industries.  Peter Sinclair has released another video, this one about BlackRock’s warning to the investment community of the risks associated with climate change.  Jenny Offill has a new cli-fi book entitled Weather.  Offill tells the story in a series of discrete units that Vox describes as working like Zen koans.  The Guardian published an edited excerpt from The Future We Choose, a new book by Christiana Figueres and Tom Rivett-Carnac, the architects of the Paris Climate Accords.  New to the cli-fi genre?  Then you might benefit from an introduction written by Jennifer Hijazi for E&E News.  Michael Svoboda has compiled a list of books about hope in a time of climate change.  Greta Thunberg has set up a foundation “to promote ecological and social sustainability.”  In The New York Times Magazine, Charles Homans, the politics editor, wrote about the dashcam video recorded by a fire truck belonging to the Dunmore Rural Fire Brigade in Australia.  He called it the “video that finally tells the truth about climate change.”  At The New Yorker, Amanda Petrusich wrote about efforts to reduce the carbon footprints of live concerts and music festivals.  The Guardian has revealed that according to a yet-to-be published study at Brown University, “a quarter of all tweets about climate on an average day are produced by bots.”

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

Joy Loving prepared this week’s edition.

Politics and Policy

Notwithstanding the Trump Administration’s actions to promote continued reliance on fossil fuels, there are many leaders, including in the President’s party, who favor putting a price on carbon.  The Washington Post reports: “The fastest way to cut carbon emissions is a ‘fee’ and a dividend, top leaders say”.  The Houston Chronicle documents that “Climate bills sweep Washington, as GOP and Democrats compete on approach”.  Reuters says “A group aiming to spur climate change legislation that would tax carbon emissions stepped up efforts by issuing a blueprint on Thursday after previewing it with a group of bipartisan U.S. senators earlier this week….  The Climate Leadership Council’s plan aims to halve carbon emissions by 2035 from 2005 levels with a tax starting at $40 per ton. While that would make products like gasoline more expensive, the plan would return dividends to families of about $2,000 in the first year.”  Politico warns that “Kevin McCarthy faces uneasy right flank over climate push, [noting] Some Republicans are wary of the minority leader’s narrow proposals.”

In Australia, the country’s massive bush fires haven’t dissuaded its leaders from their coal-friendly policies, as the Washington Post notes in this article:  “Record fires and dead coral reefs aren’t dulling Australia’s lust for coal”.  The fondness for coal continues in the U.S. also, as noted in this Inside Climate News item:  “Trump May Approve Strip Mining on Tennessee’s Protected Cumberland Plateau”.  Also, The Hill reports that “Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette on Friday announced a $64 million dollar initiative to fund research and development for coal, giving an assist to an industry that appears to be on the decline.”

The Administration’s budget proposal includes significant cuts in the science, health, and environmental arenas, including elimination of 50 Environmental Protection Agency programs. Inside Climate News asks “Is Trump’s USDA Ready to Address Climate Change? There are Hopeful Signs.  Though critics are dubious, in a new 5-year plan the agency addresses weather disasters that have battered American farms and specifically mentions climate change.”  These critics say “[t]he plan … pushes an agenda that fails to fundamentally change an agricultural system that degrades soil health, continues to emit greenhouse gases at a growing rate, and relies heavily on fossil fuels, chemicals and synthetic fertilizers.”  Inside Climate News also suggests that “Drilling, Mining Boom Possible But Unlikely Under Trump’s Final Plan for Southern Utah Lands.  The biggest climate impact will be on the lands’ capacity to reduce carbon emissions and provide carbon sinks.”

Vox reporter David Roberts says “The next president can force the financial sector to take climate change seriously”.  He notes that thanks to Dodd‑Frank legislation, Congressional authorization isn’t needed because of the financial industry’s extreme vulnerability to climate change.  Also, Axios has several stories about pro-climate actions by some members of the President’s party.

The Church of England “voted overwhelmingly to target net zero emissions for its operations by 2030, strengthening the original proposal to reach that target by 2045.” (Fortune article)  The New York Post says “Voters claim they want a leader who’ll actually do something about climate change”.  Mother Jones says “poll numbers don’t lie”: “Trump’s Biggest Vulnerability Is His Climate Change Denial”.  Inside Climate News:  An Obscure Issue Four Years Ago, Climate Emerged as a Top Concern in New Hampshire

Climate and Climate Science

Jennifer Rankin, of The Guardian, reports on maps of Europe projecting the massive scale of “possible forest fires, floods, droughts and deluges that Europe could face by the end of the century.”  Phys.org describes a Centre for research on Energy and Clean Air report that concludes “Air pollution costs $2.9 trillion a year…, [or] $8 billion a day, or roughly 3.3 percent of the entire world’s economic output.”

Inside Climate News reports that “Billions of Acres of Cropland Lie Within a New Frontier. So Do 100 Years of Carbon Emissions….  As the climate warms in the decades ahead, billions of acres, most of them in the northern hemisphere, will become suitable for agriculture and could, if plowed, emit a massive, planet-altering amount of greenhouse gases.”

On February 6 “Antarctica [Was] Warmer than Los Angeles” at 64.9 degrees.  Amazingly and on February 14 “Temperature in Antarctica soars to near 70 degrees, appearing to topple continental record set days earlier”.

Augusta Free Press reports that some VA Tech scientists are working “with the New Zealand government-owned research entity Scion [to] understand … the dynamics of water and nutrients in forest systems.”  These systems are “a crucial resource for fresh water around the world.”  The Washington Post Magazine’s story, The Green Miles, details how “Kentucky was devastated for decades by mountaintop removal. Now scientists have figured out a way to undo the damage — one tree at a time.”  Ohio Valley Resource reports that “Heavy rainfall events have already increased by 20 percent since the early 20th century in eastern Kentucky, and climate scientists believe that the region is likely to see more extreme rainfall in the future.”

As if its bushfire woes haven’t been terrible enough, Sydney Australia is facing a severe flooding threat, according to this Sydney Morning Herald item and this one from the BBC.  Drinking water can be contaminated from the wildfires, notes Inside Climate News.

A recent survey of 1000 South Florida residents whose properties were at some risk from flooding tried to assess the residents’ understanding of those risks.  The survey wanted to test the effectiveness of tailored messages – visual, local and dramatic – … that will get the public’s attention … and are intended to help people understand risk as it relates to them, and perhaps, change their behavior.  The messages were First Street Foundation “maps that represent what flooding in the future might look like.  The results?  “Those who saw the maps were no more likely to believe that climate change exists, that climate change increases the severity of storms or that sea level is rising and related to climate change.  Even more dramatically, exposure to the scientific map did not influence beliefs that their own homes were susceptible to flooding or that sea level rise would reduce local property values.”  CNBC says Scientists are using Twitter to measure the impact of climate change.  “Minor and recurring floods — also known as nuisance flooding — may be more frequent than official figures would suggest, according to a new study published by Nature Communications.” 

Energy

“The Trump Administration is allowing, even encouraging, drilling on public lands. Resulting emissions will severely “undermine global climate policy.” (The Guardian article)  “The Trump administration has offered oil companies a chunk of the American west and the Gulf of Mexico that’s four times the size of California – an expansive drilling plan that threatens to entrench the industry at the expense of other outdoor jobs, while locking in enough emissions to undermine global climate policy.” (The Guardian article)  A piece in The Hill echoed this activity.

The 2020 General Assembly (GA) session has seen a deluge of clean energy legislation.  As the GA begins the second half, Ivy Main provides a comprehensive summary of what’s being proposed and where the various bills stand.  The Daily Energy Insider offers its description of one of the major bills, the Virginia Clean Economy Act.  Blog posters on Bacon’s Rebellion offer their takes on the many aspects of this bill in Omnibus, Omnibus II, and Omnibus III.  The Associated Press also weighs in.

Another area before the GA this session relates to the large utilities’ regulated monopoly status and what implications there are for their customers to seek renewable energy-sourced power from other energy providers.  The Virginia Mercury’s Sarah Vogelsong describes what’s happened so far on two legislative proposals addressing the current restrictions, and exemptions, in the VA code.

Remember BP and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico?  According to the Washington Post, this week brought some bad news about the latter and (maybe) some good, or too-good-to-be-true news about the former.  Axios suggests that “BP’s climate move could mean new pressure on Exxon and Chevron”.  Bloomberg Green suggests “BP Sets Bold Agenda for Big Oil With Plan to Eliminate CO₂”.  The Guardian notes that “BP, Shell, Chevron and Exxon have made almost $2tn in profits in the past three decades as their exploitation of oil, gas and coal reserves has driven the planet to the brink of climate breakdown….”

Bloomberg Green reports that “Energy Markets Need Winter, and Climate Change Is Taking It Away.  The warmest January on record is making life difficult for oil and gas traders.”  Axios agrees:  “There’s more oil and gas than ever — and the industry is tanking.”  Why?  Because “The industry’s stocks are in the toilet, and climate change is fast becoming a mainstream investor worry. These problems overlap and neither is going away anytime soon — if ever.”  The PBS Newshour reports that “The International Energy Agency expects demand for oil to fall in the first quarter as a result of the virus outbreak that emanated in China. Any fall would represent the first quarterly decline in a decade.”  Perhaps this reality in part explains this ProPublica item, “How Louisiana Lawmakers Stop Residents’ Efforts to Fight Big Oil and Gas”.  The headline describes Louisiana as a “Polluter’s Paradise”.  Energy News Network reports on a similar effort to silence protesters in Ohio.  In Louisiana, meanwhile, The Times-Picayune reports that “Louisiana high school students study coastal restoration amid climate change.”

This Reuters article on International Energy Agency report says:  “Global CO2 emissions from power generation flatten out … after two years of increase.  Why? “The growth of renewable energy and fuel switching from coal to natural gas led to lower emissions from advanced economies. Milder weather in several countries and slower economic growth in some emerging markets also contributed….” The Washington Times also reports on this story.

NC Policy Watch says Lumberton NC may soon be home to another wood pellet plant, describing the town as an “area already home to multiple pollution sources”.  These include solid waste and toxic waste landfills and brownfield and coal ash sites, among others.  The Atlanta Journal Constitution reports that the delivery service company UPS is working to increase its use of electric trucks and self-driving vans. Indigenous peoples are vigorously protesting a planned Canadian pipeline project, halting rail traffic across the country, according to this National Public Radio story.  

Mother Jones heralds “The Biggest Municipal Solar Farm in the US Is Coming to…Cincinnati?”

Potpourri

Virginia recently destroyed a habitat used by thousands of migratory birds as part of an infrastructure project for the Hampton Roads Tunnel.  The state initially cited recent Trump Administration policy changes that lessened protections for migratory birds.  The Augusta Free Press reports that “Virginia releases plan to address loss of habitat for birds on South Island”.  “Virginia is a world class outdoor recreation destination, and the birds using the Atlantic Flyway that stop along our shores are a big reason why,” said Secretary of Natural Resources Matthew J. Strickler. “Protecting wildlife resources is challenging under the best of circumstances and it becomes even harder when federal partners weaken longstanding policies.”

A recent Washington Post article on parenting describes “How climate experts think about raising children who will inherit a planet in crisis”. 

Yale Environment 360 brings us the story of “How Native Tribes Are Taking the Lead on Planning for Climate Change”.  The Walrus says clothing from alpaca wool is more sustainable than that from sheep.  Max Aung pens this essay in Environmental Health News:  Source of pride and pollution: Balancing energy needs and community health.  Canadian Broadcasting Company explains “How produce stickers contribute to climate change”.   Ozy has this story about a plan in Europe to combat climate change using plastic.  Huh?  It’s about building a plastic-to-fuel technology market. Ozy also educates us about “How Solar Roads Could Make Transport Cleaner”.  Ensia enlightens us about how African farmers are working to reverse the long-time degradation of soils by planting trees—“farmer managed natural regeneration”.  Bloomberg Green sounds this alarm:  “Climate Change Is Coming for Your Oreos”.  Wha’?  Why?  Because “Drenched fields across the U.S. make wheat a scarcer commodity.”

Politics and Policy

In his State of the Union address Tuesday night, President Trump never mentioned climate change, whereas in the Iowa caucus the topic seemed to be foremost in voters’ minds.  The Interior Department finalized plans on Thursday to permit drilling, mining, and grazing in areas of southern Utah that had once been protected as parts of Bears Ears or Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monuments.  According to Democrats on the House Science Committee, the Trump administration is withholding nearly a billion dollars appropriated for the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, which it has unsuccessfully tried to cut.

A key provision in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement is that every five years all countries will set stricter goals for cutting greenhouse gas emissions.  Although February 9 is the deadline for submitting new goals ahead of this fall’s COP26 meeting, only two countries have done so.  The remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C is extremely small, equivalent to around eight years of current emissions.  Consequently, according to Carbon Brief, overall CO₂ emissions must fall to 45% below 2010 levels by 2030, to stay below 1.5°C, which will require emissions from coal-fired power plants to drop by around 80%.  A strongly worded open letter signed by almost 300 climate experts was sent to Australian prime minister Scott Morrison urging him to take action against climate change.

Like most environmental economists, Gernot Wagner is in favor of carbon taxes as a way to lower the use of fossil fuels.  However, he argues that carbon taxes alone are insufficient; they need to be coupled with appropriate policies, such as subsidizing alternative energy.  A report by Future Earth has found that five emergencies facing humans – climate change, extreme weather, species loss, water scarcity, and food production – are all interlinked, whereas governments are trying to solve them individually.  To be successful, they must be addressed in concert.  At Vox, David Roberts had an interesting and thought-provoking essay about the role of climate scientists in the policy debate for addressing those issues.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) wants federally owned utilities to build massive amounts of wind and solar to compete with private generators, but critics say that would complicate an already tricky transition to clean energy.  Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Andy Levin (D-MI) on Thursday outlined a bill that seeks to establish a nationwide electric vehicle charging network within five years.  Virginia Democratic lawmakers on Thursday night unveiled the details of the Virginia Clean Economy Act, a 75-page plan to get Virginia to zero carbon by 2050. 

Climate and Climate Science

A recent paper in the journal Nature Climate Change added another factor to be considered when trying to explain Arctic amplification – chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).  Even though they were phased out in 1989, some still persist in the atmosphere where they act as strong greenhouse gases.  Modeling studies suggest that they may be responsible for a large part of the rapid warming in the Arctic.  South American glaciers are rapidly melting, which poses a severe threat to those dependent on them for drinking, irrigation, and hydroelectric power.  Another study has documented the flow of warm ocean water beneath the ice tongue of a large glacier, accelerating its melting.

According to a new report from Climate Central, snowfall totals are dwindling during the shoulder seasons across much of the South, the Plains and the interior Mid-Atlantic regions.  A study published in the journal Nature Climate Change has found that biodiversity hotspots, which have given species a safe haven from changing climates in the past, will come under threat from continued climate change.  Bumblebee populations in North America and Europe have plummeted as a result of extreme temperatures, according to a study published Thursday in the journal Science.  A citizens’ science project in the UK has found that all but one of the 50 spring events tracked last year were early, amid warmer winter temperatures.

A new study in Science Advances found that ocean circulation, driven by increased wind speed, has increased since the 1990s.  Such an increase was anticipated, but was not expected to happen to this degree until the end of the century.  Numerous impacts are associated with the change.  The rate of sea-level rise along a large part of the U.S. coastline is continuing to accelerate, according to a new report from the Virginia Institute of Marine Science.  Warming waters and loss of sea ice north of Japan are having adverse effects on seals, phytoplankton, fish, and other sea life.

Europe just concluded its warmest January on record, edging out previous record holder January 2007 by 0.36°F.  It was also Earth’s warmest January on record, essentially tying with January 2016.  Antarctica logged its hottest temperature on record, with an Argentinian research station thermometer reading 18.3°C (64.9°F), beating the previous record by 0.8°C (1.4°F).  Hurricane Petra swept across Switzerland on Monday night and Tuesday morning, with winds around 100 mph, the highest recorded since records were started in 1981.

A study published in Nature Geoscience has concluded that climate models considering only gradual permafrost thaw, and not also abrupt thaw, are substantially underestimating carbon emissions from thawing permafrost.  At Wired, Matt Simon described the landscapes susceptible to abrupt thaw.  I recently put in a link about the current generation of climate models giving higher values of climate sensitivity.  Fred Pearce has a good (but long) analysis of why that is happening.

Energy

Greenhouse gas emissions from the European Union’s electricity sector fell 12% last year, the sharpest drop since at least 1990, due to reduced coal-fired generation.  In contrast, Japan plans to build as many as 22 new coal-fired power plants at 17 different sites in the next five years.  Last week I put in links to a commentary in Nature by Zeke Hausfather and Glen Peters about the RCP8.5 scenario for possible future emissions and Michael Mann’s reaction.  On Saturday, Bob Berwyn of Inside Climate News gave some of the background about this issue.

A Canadian startup is about to begin testing an idea that could provide an abundant source of carbon-free hydrogen from underground oil fields, providing the clean energy source at lower prices than available today.  At Yale Climate Connections, Will McCarthy addressed the pros and cons of enhanced geothermal energy systems.

Zeke Hausfather at Carbon Brief updated a fact-check article he wrote on May 13, 2019 about lifecycle carbon emissions from electric vehicles.  One conclusion is that emissions from a Nissan Leaf EV in the UK in 2019 were about one-third of the average conventional car.  On Tuesday, startup Rivian provided an update on the all-electric delivery van that it is building for Amazon, with delivery to begin in 2021.  A new lithium battery recycling facility is operable at the Eastman Business Park in Rochester, NY.

Because of the UK’s progress in adding renewable energy to its electrical grid they have moved their target date for closing all coal-fired power plants from 2025 to 2024.  Furthermore, they are moving the ban on selling new gasoline, diesel, or hybrid cars in the UK from 2040 to 2035 at the latest.  Consumers will only be able to buy electric or hydrogen cars, once the ban comes into effect.

The movement to all-electric buildings is moving much faster than anyone anticipated, although there has been some pushback.  Solar system prices dropped 90% over the last nine years, but the decline was tempered by American trade tariffs, leaving U.S. prices 45% above those in Europe and Australia, according to new research from Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables. 

Potpourri

In The Guardian, Bill McKibben called out Canada’s government over their plans to expand tar sands mining.  Bloomberg’s Ben Steverman sat down with billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham, who is devoting almost his entire fortune to the fight against climate change, to discuss how the climate race is rapidly altering the world’s economic and investing future.  Harvard University faculty voted 179 to 20 to call on the school’s endowment managers to divest from fossil fuel companies, while Georgetown University’s president announced that the school will make no new investments in fossil fuels and will start withdrawing funds already invested in them.  Extinction Rebellion and Amazon Watch are making 12 short films to draw attention to the catastrophic damage being caused by human-induced global warming.  National Geographic presented the beautiful, but disturbing, photographs of methane gas bubbles from under Alaskan ice by a Japanese-born photographer living in Fairbanks.  At Yale Climate Connections, Samantha Harrington addressed the issue of how climate change affects mental health.  In a must-read article for anyone with children or grandchildren, author Jason Plautz wrote “…parents are left to walk a tightrope between being honest and being comforting, between empowering their kids and weighing them down with the responsibility of saving the world.”

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

Politics and Policy

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the Fed can help keep climate change from destabilizing U.S. banks and financial markets.  The German government approved a bill Wednesday that will codify the country’s closure of coal-fired power plants by 2038, defending the plan against critics who say it’s not ambitious enough.  At Open Democracy, author Simon Pirani argued that decarbonizing the economy will be impossible unless we transform our economic and social systems.  Meanwhile, at Yale Environment 360, Prof. David Victor wrote that attaining deep decarbonization will require creating the incentives and markets essential for sparking new technology and businesses.  The New York Times published excerpts from panels and speeches on climate change at the World Economic Forum in Davos. 

House Democratic leaders rolled out their vision for a $760 billion, five-year infrastructure proposal that places a major emphasis on climate change.  According to an article in the Washington Examiner, the major themes of the pending Republican agenda for addressing climate change are capturing CO₂, curbing plastic waste, exporting natural gas, and promoting “resilience” or adaptation to sea-level rise and other effects of climate change.  At Politico, Zack Coleman and colleagues also wrote about Republican plans.  In spite of what they think about climate change, many liberals and conservatives agree on the benefits of renewable energy. 

In a clear-eyed essay in MIT Technology Review, James Temple wrote that planting trees is “a limited and unreliable way of addressing climate change.”  Although people have often discussed increasing the carbon content of soil as one way of fighting climate change, few large-scale programs have been implemented.  As discussed by Sarah Wesseler, that now may be about to change because of the actions of some start-ups aiming to pay farmers to sequester carbon.  New Jersey will become the first state to require that builders take into account the impact of climate change, including rising sea levels, in order to win government approval for projects.  Four Native-American tribes in Louisiana and one in Alaska have filed a formal climate change complaint with the UN, arguing that the U.S. is violating their human rights and not addressing the serious harm climate change is having on their communities.  Lawsuits against energy companies in U.S. courts face critical legal challenges.

Social scientists speak of social tipping points, whereby a society’s attitudes about a given movement change rapidly after a precipitating incident triggers cascading changes in perceptions.  Some climate activists think this provides hope for the climate movement.  Now, new research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) constructs a framework for understanding social tipping points and the kinds of interventions that might trigger them. 

Climate and Climate Science

The Australian state of New South Wales (NSW) has announced an independent inquiry into the ongoing bushfires, including how climate change, human activity, and other factors had contributed to the blazes.  With the increasing frequency, severity, and extent of forest fires, even forests made up of species that thrive on cycles of fire and regrowth are losing resilience.

In a commentary for the journal Nature, Zeke Hausfather and Glen Peters argue against the use of the phrase “business as usual” to describe the RCP8.5 emissions scenario.  The pair say emissions as high as in RCP8.5 are “increasingly implausible” and that the scenario, while still useful to study, would be better described as a “worst case”.  Climate scientist Michael Mann commented on the article on his website.  The Capital Weather Gang at The Washington Post released new temperature maps that show where records were broken around the world in each of the past several years.  A study published in the journal PLOS One used machine learning to predict where people would move in the U.S. if sea level rose 3 ft and 6 ft, looking at in-migration at the county level.  Climatologist Gavin Schmidt has released his annual comparison of modeled and actual mean global temperatures at RealClimate.  The models continue to track the real world.

Scientists in Antarctica have recorded unusually warm water (35.6°F) beneath Thwaites glacier at its grounding line, where it transitions from resting wholly on bedrock to spreading out on the sea as ice shelves.  A reporter from BBC News accompanied the scientific expedition for part of the time and described what the scientists did and learned.

Climate change may be powering the swarms of desert locusts that have invaded eastern Africa, ravaging crops, decimating pasture, and deepening a hunger crisis, experts on locusts and climate said.  The world’s tropical forests are losing their ability to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, while boreal forests are absorbing emissions at an increasingly fast rate, a study published in the journal Nature Ecology and Evolution finds.  Furthermore, A perfect storm of climate change, extreme weather, and pressure from human activity is threatening to collapse Earth’s most biodiverse ecosystems, according to a new study published in the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B.  This is particularly important because indigenous lands and protected areas in the Amazon contribute far less to climate change than the rest of the rainforest since they account for only 10% of carbon emissions while covering 52% of the region, a study in PNAS shows.  Likewise, in Africa indigenous groups battle to maintain control over their lands.

In case you have friends who still maintain that climate change is due to the sun, try showing them the graphs in this article from The Conversation.  A study, published Monday in PNAS, detected a pattern that links Arctic sea ice decline since the late 1990s with more frequent El Niños in the Central Pacific Ocean.  Research published Monday in Nature Communications found that marine heat off the coast of California led to a change in forage species, which caused whales to move closer to shore and into fishing grounds, causing more whale entanglements in nets.  A study published in the journal Science of the Total Environment found that acidity in the Pacific Ocean is affecting the shells of Dungeness crab larvae, making them more vulnerable to predators and limiting shell effectiveness in supporting the growth of muscles. 

Energy

According to a new report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the amount of CO₂ the U.S. adds to the atmosphere each year is projected to begin rising by the 2030s and by 2050 emissions are expected to be just 4% below 2019 levels.  Carbon Tracker warns that the oil industry is at risk of a global market shock that could halve the value of fossil fuel investments if governments delay setting policies to tackle the climate crisis and must abruptly change their policies.

Nicholas Kusnetz of Inside Climate News took a comprehensive look at methane leakage from the oil and gas industry as he addressed the question of whether natural gas can be part of a climate change solution.  Australia’s government plans to boost natural gas supply and renewable energy as part of a $1.4 billion deal with New South Wales, its most populous state.  It will upgrade parts of the east coast power grid, help pay for two new interstate transmission links, and back emissions reduction projects.

The Canadian firm Svante and the Swiss company Climeworks AG have a new “joint development agreement” to pilot the combination of the former’s industrial CO₂ capture system alongside the latter’s direct air capture technology.

Texas accounted for more than a quarter of all corporate renewable energy deals signed around the world last year.  Denmark-based energy company Ørsted has agreed to lease a portion of the Portsmouth Marine Terminal from the Virginia Port Authority to stage materials and equipment for Dominion Energy’s offshore wind project.  The world’s first commercial-scale green-hydrogen plant to be powered solely by surplus offshore wind energy has been announced by a trio of Belgian companies.  Meanwhile, in England, green-hydrogen is being injected into a small natural gas grid in a test of the concept of mixing hydrogen and methane.

Electrical grid congestion costs consumers billions of dollars and is hampering renewable energy deployment.  However, Hudson Gilmer, co-founder and CEO of LineVision Inc., says that his company has demonstrated that there’s additional capacity in our existing grid that can be unlocked by using dynamic line rating technology.

Potpourri

By embracing climate science and presenting it in a simple, locally-relevant manner, TV meteorologists have become some of the most effective and trustworthy climate change educators in the country.  Journalist Nina Burleigh wrote lovingly of the beauty and fragility of the Everglades in a time of climate change and sea level rise; the accompanying photos by Erik Freeland are spectacular.  Michael Svoboda has compiled information on 16 books about “life in the Anthropocene”.  If you are interested in talking about climate change to business people, you might benefit from this interview with climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe at Harvard Business Review.  At Fast Company, Adele Peters imagined what work might be like in 2040 when the global average temperature is 1.5°C above preindustrial times and Kristin Toussaint visited a Singapore apartment to see what life might be like in a hotter future.  Steve Mnuchin’s wife, Scottish actress Louise Linton, defended Greta Thunberg on Instagram, but the post was deleted without explanation about 30 minutes after it appeared.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.