Month: March 2018

Policy and Politics

The results of the latest Gallup poll on climate change show that the partisan gap has widened slightly since last year’s poll.  The increase may be driven in part by the skepticism of the Trump administration, as evidenced by the “talking points” given to EPA employees this week, instructing them to emphasize the uncertainties concerning climate science, and negotiations to roll back automotive fuel efficiency standards.  Speaking of the EPA, Margaret Talbot has an in-depth article in The New Yorker entitled “Scott Pruitt’s Dirty Politics: How the Environmental Protection Agency became the fossil-fuel industry’s best friend”.  A coalition of environmental groups is teaming up for a multi-pronged campaign to try to get Pruitt fired or to resign.  With respect to fuel efficiency standards, a new blog post at the Environmental Defense Fund’s Climate 411 site discusses five things we should all know about them.  The Obama-era rule limiting methane emissions from oil and gas development on public lands is fully in force for now, but oil and gas lawyers say companies can’t follow the standards because BLM doesn’t have the right systems in place for compliance.  U.S. District Court judge Brian Morris ordered Montana’s and Wyoming’s BLM officials to rewrite their plans for coal mining on public lands and factor in the impacts of climate change.

Thirteen years after it was created to limit CO₂ emissions, Europe’s $38 billion a year carbon market is finally starting to work the way it was intended.  Energy Secretary Rick Perry still hasn’t given up on his attempt to prop up coal-fired power plants, now using the recent northeasters to argue for their necessity.  However, a study released Monday by Bloomberg New Energy Finance found that barely half of coal-fired power plants in the U.S. earned enough revenue last year to cover their operating expenses.  FirstEnergy Corp. petitioned Perry for an emergency order to save its coal and nuclear plants from closing, but competing power sources accused FirstEnergy of misleading the Energy Department and the public into thinking the electric grid is at a far higher risk of failure without coal and nuclear plants than it is.  A provision in legislation that passed last month to increase U.S. government spending limits is expected to cause new carbon capture and sequestration projects to be started.  As the demonstrated by the state of Washington, climate change policy is proving difficult to enact, even in liberal states.  Wells Griffith has reportedly been picked as President Trump’s senior advisor on international climate policy.  He would join the National Economic Council, coordinating White House efforts on international energy and climate issues.  E&E News has a profile.

Dana Nuccitelli has an interesting, if somewhat wonky, piece in The Guardian about the definition of “preindustrial” with respect to global warming and the carbon budget.  The issue is important for setting governmental policy to limit climate change (except in the U.S. right now).  Yale Climate Connections has compiled a list of books on energy and society.  Part 1 provides books that give overviews, fossil fuel development, and contrasting visions of fossil fuels’ future.  On the subject of books, science teachers have received books about climate change over the past year, some of which present mainstream science, and some of which don’t.

Climate

A new study published in Geophysical Research Letters has found that Greenland is melting at the fastest rate in at least the past 450 years, and possibly in the past 5,000 years.  Arctic sea ice reached its maximum extent for the year on March 17, attaining an area that was the second smallest in the 39-year satellite record, although just barely, being almost as small as 2017.

A new NOAA report projects that by 2100, high tide flooding will occur every other day, on average, along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the U.S., even under a moderate emissions scenario.  Still, there is some good news about sea level rise, as shown in this month’s Yale Climate Connections “This is Not Cool” video.

The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services has released a series of reports assessing biodiversity for four major regions around the world, as well another examining global land degradation.  According to the reports, climate change, along with factors like land degradation and habitat loss, is emerging as a top threat to wildlife around the globe.

In a resolution adopted on Tuesday as part of a renewed mandate for assistance and peacekeeping in Somalia, the U.N. Security Council noted “the adverse effects of climate change, ecological changes and natural disasters among other factors on the stability of Somalia, including through drought, desertification, land degradation, and food insecurity”.  A study published Thursday in the Journal of Climate found that the Sahara Desert is expanding, in part due to climate change.

New research, published Monday in the journal Ecosphere, shows that half of Alberta’s boreal forest could disappear in just over 80 years due to wildfires and climate change.

Energy

On Monday, Royal Dutch Shell released its Sky scenario, whereby the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement can be attained.  Under the scenario, oil use would drop as cars become electric, a massive carbon storage industry would develop, and transportation would begin to shift toward a reliance on hydrogen as an energy carrier.  Carbon Brief provided an in-depth look at the report.  Also on Monday, a paper published in Nature Climate Change concluded that massive cuts in greenhouse gas emissions will be required to keep global warming between 1.5 and 2.0°C, although it may not be necessary to eliminate all emissions.  Furthermore, if those cuts are made early enough, it may not be necessary to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere.  China reached its 2020 greenhouse gas emissions reduction goal last year, its government said.

Softbank Group Corp. and Saudi Arabia have signed a memorandum of understanding to create a 200 GW solar initiative in the country by 2030.  When coupled with the planned construction of several nuclear power plants, the initiative will greatly reduce the country’s reliance on oil and gas.

Trees were in the news along the routes of two proposed gas pipelines.  Along the route of the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), people were in the trees, as well as on a pole in the middle of an access road.  However, Virginia environmental regulators approved erosion, sediment, and stormwater management plans for the MVP, which is now authorized to begin construction in the state.  FERC denied a request from developers of the proposed Atlantic Coast Pipeline to continue cutting trees along the project’s route beyond an initial deadline designed to protect birds and bats.  Meanwhile, pipeline construction is having a positive impact on jobs in West Virginia.

Natural gas has become the No. 1 power source in the U.S., but that status may be shifting, particularly in the west because of the low cost of wind energy.  Ivan Penn explored the forces influencing gas at The New York Times.

American Electric Power Company plans to build a 2 GW wind farm in the Oklahoma panhandle that will cover 300,000 acres.  To do so, they want to use a method of financing that has been used to build nuclear, coal- and natural gas-fired power plants, but not renewable energy facilities.  As America’s biggest wind farms age, their owners are starting to “repower” them with more efficient turbines, new electronics, and longer, lighter blades that can sweep more wind with each rotation.

Since 2009 the electric power grid has gotten cleaner, thanks to more use of natural gas and less use of coal for generation, and more solar and wind.  As a consequence, the emissions associated with electric vehicles (EVs) have decreased, so that today, on average, an EV has the equivalent emissions of a gas car that gets 80 mpg.  Maryland’s utilities propose spending $104 million on a statewide electric-vehicle charging network containing 24,000 residential, workplace, and public charging stations.

Yet another study has been published, this one in the journal Energy and Environmental Science, addressing the question of whether U.S. electricity needs could be met with wind and solar power alone.  This one looked at several mixes of wind and solar, finding that the mixes determined the percent of needs met.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

Policy and Politics

The omnibus spending bill that was passed early Friday morning contains funding for several science programs that the Trump administration wanted to reduce or eliminate.  On March 6, the judge in the California cities’ lawsuit against five of the largest oil companies sent both sides in the case a list of eight questions that he wanted them to address.  On Wednesday, a formal “tutorial” on climate change was held “so that the poor judge can learn some science.”  This isn’t the only climate lawsuit going forward, as summarized by Damion Carrington in The Guardian.  Virginia governor Ralph Northam will veto House Bill 1270, which would prohibit the governor or a state agency from establishing a CO₂ cap-and-trade program or adopting a regulation that “brings about the participation by the commonwealth in a regional market for the trading of carbon dioxide allowances.”  At the federal level, even though flood risk is rising around the U.S., FEMA has dropped mentions of climate change and sea level rise from its strategic plan, a document that is supposed to guide the agency’s response to hurricanes, flooding, and wildfires through 2022.

Although the auto industry worked with the Obama administration to establish new emissions standards for cars, it now seems to have changed its tune.  Last month, the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, argued in a regulatory filing that the basic science behind climate change is not to be trusted.  Reveal from The Center for Investigative Reporting had an interesting piece about geoengineering and why some climate skeptics have become interested in it.  In an article in Nature, a group of scientists has proposed new types of geoengineering to slow the melting of the glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica.

Speaking at an EU conference in Brussels, French President Emmanuel Macron said trade agreements “should be a way of spreading our standards. Anyone who signs an agreement with the EU should be committing to put the Paris Agreement into practice… Why should we sign a trade agreement with powers that say they don’t want to implement the Paris Agreement? We would be mad [to do so].”  He also said that Europe must set a minimum price on carbon, something that would require a new tax on imports from non-EU countries that are not doing enough to tackle climate change.  Sierra had a very interesting interview with Katharine Hayhoe, in which she addressed how to communicate with those who deny climate change.  Also, Paul Voosen had a fascinating article in Science about Vaclav Smil.  Never heard of him?  Read the article.  He certainly gives one a lot to think about.

Climate

Mountain glaciers all over the world are melting, with large impacts on downstream communities.  A new study, published in Nature Climate Change, has found that even if there were no additional warming of Earth, 36% of mountain glacial ice would still eventually disappear as the glaciers came to equilibrium with the new climate.  Another paper in the same journal examined the potential for methane production and release from melting permafrost and found it to be much greater than previously estimated.  Reducing short-lived pollutants like methane, HFCs, and black carbon offers a glimmer of opportunity to protect the rapidly warming Arctic and give the world more time to tackle the trickier problem of CO₂.

Climate scientist Jennifer Francis had a Perspective piece in The Washington Post on Wednesday offering a possible explanation for why the eastern U.S. has been hit by four powerful coastal storms this March.  Her ideas are not universally accepted however, as pointed out in a report in The New Yorker.  Floods and extreme rainfall events have increased globally by more than 50% this decade, and are now occurring at a rate four times higher than in 1980, according to a new report by the European Academies’ Science Advisory Council.  Regardless of what is causing the increased incidence of storms, it is ironic that many states, including coastal ones, are relaxing their building codes.

A new report by the World Bank concludes that as many as 143 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America could be forced to migrate within their own country by 2050 due to climate change.  Speaking of internal migration, the Louisiana Office of Community Development announced Wednesday that it will spend $11.7m to purchase a 208-hectare parcel of high ground upon which to resettle about 80 residents of an island threatened by rising seas.  In Alaska, money is being allocated to move some of the residents of Newtok to a higher location nine miles away.  And along the Bering Sea, the Alaskan community of Little Diomede has been hammered by waves this winter because of the lack of sea ice, raising the question of how long the village will be habitable.

The U.N.’s World Meteorological Organization released its annual report on the global climate, finding that the past three years were the hottest on record and heat waves in Australia, freak Arctic warmth, and water shortages in Cape Town are extending harmful weather extremes in 2018.  After assessing 67 nations representing almost a third of the world’s nation states, 80% of the global population, and 94% of global gross domestic product, HSBC concluded that India, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Bangladesh (in that order) are the nations most vulnerable to climate change.

According to a new paper in the journal Nature Climate Change, premature deaths would fall on nearly every continent if the world’s governments agreed to cut emissions of carbon and other harmful gases enough to limit global temperature rise to less than 1.67°C (3°F) by the end of the century, which is 0.33°C (0.6°F) lower than the target set by the Paris Climate Agreement.  Another paper in the same journal found that limiting warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) rather than 2°C (3.6°F) would cost three times as much and require earlier emissions cuts in the transport and buildings sectors.

A paper in the journal PLOS One found that over the next 20 years, as many as 11 states in the U.S. are predicted to see the average annual area burned increase by 5 times.

New research from the University of Michigan and Tulane University, published Tuesday in the journal Environmental Research Letters, found that 20% of American eaters account for nearly half of total diet-related greenhouse gas emissions, and that their diets are heavy on beef.  Coincidentally, McDonald’s announced on Tuesday that it is undertaking a new program to substantially reduce its carbon footprint.

Energy

If you want some inspiration, read Brad Plumer’s article about the ARPA-E conference.  ARPA-E is the program in DOE funding high risk/high payoff projects related to energy.  While President Trump’s budget proposal wanted to zero it out, Congress kept it going in the new spending bill.  Plumer’s article will give you an idea of the sorts of things that are being looked at for our energy future.

According to a new report released by the International Energy Agency on Wednesday, global energy demand increased by 2.1% in 2017, compared with 0.9% on average over the previous five years.  More than 40% of the growth in 2017 was driven by China and India; 72% of the rise was met by fossil fuels, a quarter by renewables, and the remainder by nuclear.  As a consequence, global energy-related CO₂ emissions grew by 1.4% in 2017, reaching a historic high of 32.5 Gt/yr.  Brad Plumer of The New York Times outlined five reasons for the increased emissions.  Nevertheless, according to a report by Greenpeace, the Sierra Club, and CoalSwarm, the start of construction of new coal-fired power plants dropped by 73% between 2015 and 2017, the number of newly completed plants fell 41%, and the number of plants in planning dropped by 59%.  However, many of the existing plants will be running for quite a while.  So, what will lead to their closure?  That’s complicated, as discussed in this article from Utility Dive.

The U.S. solar industry had its second-best year on record for installations in 2017, installing 10.6 GW of solar photovoltaic capacity, according to an analysis by GTM Research and the Solar Energy Industries Association.  If all goes as planned, Microsoft will buy 315 MW of solar energy from a 500 MW solar farm to be built in Spotsylvania County, VA.  The energy will be used to power Microsoft’s data centers in Virginia.  Meanwhile, solar panels and batteries are playing a role in the recovery of Puerto Rico from last fall’s hurricanes, although current regulations make it unclear just how microgrids can be incorporated into the new system.  (Resilient Power Puerto Rico, the nonprofit that CAAV’s fall fundraiser contributed to, is mentioned toward the end of the article.)

In a setback for fuel cell powered vehicles, Linde-AG is shutting down its fuel cell car sharing service in Munich because it’s not “economically viable.”  Nevertheless, 78% of auto executives polled in 2017 thought that fuel cell vehicles represented the real future in electric transportation.

Sometimes I provide links to articles about solar energy that refer to the “duck curve” associated with net power demand when solar is integrated into a conventional power system.  If that terminology has baffled you, then this article by David Roberts at Vox is for you.  It explains the duck curve, the problems associated with it, and possible ways to solve them so that more solar (and wind) energy can be incorporated into the grid.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

Les Grady is away. This week’s roundup has been compiled by Joy Loving. 

We headline this week’s roundup with some words from the late Stephen Hawking, who died March 14:

A Call to Care and Do Something:   “Remember to look up at the stars and not down at your feet. Try to make sense of what you see and wonder about what makes the universe exist. Be curious. And however difficult life may seem, there is always something you can do and succeed at. It matters that you don’t just give up.”
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/mar/14/best-stephen-hawking-quotes-quotations

Caring for the Planet:   “Perhaps in a few hundred years, we will have established human colonies amid the stars, but right now we only have one planet, and we need to work together to protect it,” he wrote. “To do that, we need to break down, not build up, barriers within and between nations.”
https://www.ecowatch.com/stephen-hawking-climate-change-2547368270.html

POLITICS & POLICY

1. The current Administration appears to be of multiple minds on whether and how to address risks from our warming climate.

Recently George David Banks, former Special Assistant to the President for International Energy and Environment, discussed the decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord.  Although he advised against this action, he “personally thought the Obama administration’s pledge was just unattainable, and would have required burdensome regulations across their economy.”  http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/us-climate-policy-under-trump-administration

Some current actions within the Administration point to a serious lack of interest in environmental protections and even active collaboration with fossil fuel interests:
Industry—https://thinkprogress.org/scott-angelle-meets-almost-exclusively-with-industry-f2e52ffb4a69/
Lobbyists—http://augustafreepress.com/groups-sue-for-information-about-heartland-institutes-involvement-in-epa-climate-science-decisions/
Conflicts of Interest—https://grist.org/briefly/the-epa-is-riddled-with-conflicts-of-interest-according-to-new-analysis/
Crank Bloggers—https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/interior-climate-change-crank-blogs_us_5aa2df63e4b086698a9da922

The Interior Department (DOI) gives its employees easy-to-follow directions about presenting its initiatives:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-energy-202/2018/03/16/the-energy-202-interior-agency-gives-employees-vision-cards-depicting-oil-rigs/5aaaadcd30fb047655a06cbf/

Actions by DOI and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) point to a move away from both mitigation and adaptation strategies:
DOI plans to accelerate its plans for Utah’s Grand Staircase, following the recent decision to greatly reduce the protected area.  https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2018/03/report-trump-administration-making-controversial-expedited-plans-for-utahs-grand-staircase/
FEMA’s strategic plan no longer mentions “climate change”.  https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/03/15/594140026/fema-drops-climate-change-from-its-strategic-plan

On the other hand, within the President’s party there are proponents of a more climate-and-environment-friendly approach:
Young Republican campus push for a “carbon tax”—https://www.facebook.com/republicen/videos/1155782204565099/
https://www.wired.com/story/thank-colleges-for-imminent-carbon-taxes-no-seriously-thank-them/

However, there is also debate about whether such a tax will come about:
What’s certain besides Taxes–https://grist.org/article/nothing-is-certain-but-death-and-maybe-carbon-taxes/

2. The Administration is facing several challenges to its policies and actions.

From the judiciary:  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-epa-ozone/federal-court-orders-epa-to-implement-smog-rules-idUSKCN1GO2RB

From citizen groups:  http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article204217279.html

From the states:  https://www.utilitydive.com/news/new-york-petitions-epa-to-force-emissions-reductions-in-9-states/519057/ This New York State action is of particular interest because Virginia is one of nine states whose emissions New York says are contributing to its pollution, despite its efforts to curb them.  The others are Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

From shareholders:   https://insideclimatenews.org/news/07032018/shareholder-resolutions-climate-change-2-degrees-methane-lobbying-trump-administration

From environmental and social justice activists:  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-climatechange-lawsuit/u-s-government-sued-after-failing-to-submit-climate-change-report-idUSKCN1GP25H ; https://grist.org/article/koch-brothers-preached-the-fossil-fuel-gospel-in-virginia-then-black-churches-fought-back/

From within the Administration itself:

Climate Change Report— https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/03/12/the-government-is-close-to-finishing-a-climate-change-report-trump-wont-like-it/

Some officials Fighting Global Warming—https://www.reuters.com/article/us-trump-effect-climatechange/weathering-trumps-skepticism-u-s-officials-still-fighting-global-warming-idUSKCN1GR0F5

EPA and Coal Ash– https://insideclimatenews.org/news/15032018/epa-regulations-coal-power-plant-waste-ash-ponds-toxins-health-jeremy-orr-water-testing

EPA versus Chief of Staff Kelly–https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/09/climate/pruitt-red-team-climate-debate-kelly.html?mtrref=t.co

CLIMATE

1. What History Tells Us

Mass Extinction and Coal—Can It Happen Again?  https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/mar/12/burning-coal-may-have-caused-earths-worst-mass-extinction

What Do the Oceans Tell Us?  https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/when-it-comes-to-climate-change-the-ocean-never-forgets/

2. What about the Future?

    A. How Bad Is It Going to Be?

Pretty bad:  https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/12/climate-change-is-a-disaster-foretold-just-like-the-first-world-war
But there’s hope—if we can wait 400 years:  https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610457/at-this-rate-its-going-to-take-nearly-400-years-to-transform-the-energy-system/
Why Hurricane Harvey was so Wet:
https://grist.org/article/climate-change-made-hurricane-harvey-wetter-heres-how-we-know/ (Video)

    B. How About the Weather?

The Seasons: 

Spring, Anyone?  https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/11/opinion/winter-early-spring-.html

Winter?  https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/13/extreme-winter-weather-becoming-more-common-as-arctic-warms-study-finds

Blizzards?  https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13032018/global-warming-weather-data-winter-storms-arctic-sea-ice-jet-streams-ocean-temperature

The Oceans:

Iceland:   http://news.trust.org/item/20180310162428-945cl/

Hampton Roads:  https://pilotonline.com/news/local/environment/article_8c7de40e-261b-11e8-86b1-9f38ed9e53b8.html

Circulation:   https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/03/14/the-melting-arctic-is-already-messing-with-a-crucial-part-of-the-oceans-circulation-scientists-say/

    C. And Then There’s Fire
Peat/Bogs:  https://www.sciencenews.org/article/bogs-peatlands-fire-climate-change

3. Addressing What’s Coming

Can Technology Help?

Weather Satellites:    https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2018/03/americas-newest-weather-satellite-is-a-game-changer-for-forecasting-catastrophic-natural-events/

Geoengineering Polar Glaciers:  https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-03036-4

What about Trees?   https://grist.org/article/the-last-ditch-effort-to-save-the-worlds-forests-from-climate-change/

Disaster Planning, Anyone?  https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12032018/red-cross-disaster-relief-climate-change-attribution-studies-extreme-weather-science-trends

ENERGY

Coal Ash

Getting Rid of It:  http://www.greensboro.com/opinion/n_and_r_editorials/our-opinion-keep-the-rules-in-place-for-coal-ash/article_8cda656d-cda5-5da8-b146-c268c42c98dd.html

Virginia Legislature and Proposed Regulations

Dominion “Rate Freeze Repeal”:
Overhaul—http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/governor-signs-sweeping-utility-overhaul-affecting-million-virginia-ratepayers/article_ce65175d-c789-5517-bc0c-e4cbd5d2c554.html
Maybe Not a Good Deal for Every Virginian—https://powerforthepeopleva.com/2018/03/06/virginia-buys-dominions-pig-in-a-poke/

Carbon Reduction:
Harrisonburg Speaks Up—  Supporters Back Carbon Regs

Offshore Drilling

Pros:
Economic Benefits—http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/377618-oil-industry-trumps-offshore-drilling-plan-could-contribute-590b-to

Cons:
Trump Rollbacks Target Offshore Rules ‘Written with Human Blood’—https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/10/business/offshore-drilling-trump-administration.html
Clergy Opposition—http://pulse.ncpolicywatch.org/2018/03/09/nc-religious-leaders-voice-opposition-trumps-offshore-drilling-push/#sthash.d1N0gM1x.0tbhMn60.dpbs
Another BP Spill Could Happen-–https://www.pnj.com/story/news/2018/03/11/panhandle-risk-bp-style-blowout-guestview/407853002/
“Economic and Ecological Folly”-–https://news.mongabay.com/2018/03/analysis-u-s-call-to-drill-off-all-coasts-economic-and-ecological-folly
States Say No—https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/03/09/states-vow-to-fight-offshore-drilling-by-any-means-at-their-disposal-309656

Maybes:
Economically Beneficial or Not-– http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/business/article_8916feae-23e6-11e8-a2da-33c5ad605708.html
Scale Back—https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy/ryan-zinke-suggests-riskier-offshore-drilling-plan-likely-to-be-scaled-back
Florida Exemption—http://www.graydc.com/content/news/Zinke-clarifies-offshore-drilling-stance-FLs-exemption-476588773.html
Georgia Pros and Cons: http://www.savannahnow.com/news/20180312/studies-compare-pros-and-cons-of-drilling-off-georgia
Washington/Oregon/California Exemption:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/03/13/zinke-oil-and-gas-exploration-off-the-pacific-coast-might-not-happen

Pipelines

Virginia:
Dominion “Loss” at SCC Hearing-– http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/dominion-fails-in-attempt-to-bar-testimony-on-pipeline-s/article_fd1b3914-fd12-569e-9c58-77c82a0ab032.html
What the Pipelines Do for Virginia—https://www.nrdc.org/experts/amy-mall/are-appalachian-pipelines-being-built-increase-exports
Governor Moving to Protect Virginia Water-–http://augustafreepress.com/northam-announces-additional-powers-to-protect-virginias-clean-water/
Virginia Department of Environmental Quality Enforcing Violations–http://augustafreepress.com/deq-takes-enforcement-action-against-atlantic-coast-pipeline-llc/

Maryland:
Baltimore Crude Oil Ban–https://thinkprogress.org/baltimore-crude-oil-ban-2a00dab1d1ec/

Canada:
Protest– https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/indigenous-environmental-leaders-protest-canada-pipeline/2018/03/10/8b4c689a-2430-11e8-946c-9420060cb7bd_story.html

 Coal

Future Parity:  https://rmi.org/news/net-zero-future-cost-parity-coal-heart-coal-country/

Fracking

Health risks:  https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/fracking-health-risk-asthma-birth-defects-cancer-w517809

Hopeful Closing

Will utilities finally embrace renewable energy?
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/3/13/17108590/utilities-electrify-everything

Les Grady is away for the next two weeks. This week’s roundup has been compiled by Doug Hendren. 

POLITICS & POLICY

Kids climate lawsuit moves forward. A federal court in San Francisco has rejected the Trump administration’s latest attempt to shut down Juliana v. United States. Says chief legal counsel for Our Children’s Trust: “The Ninth Circuit just gave us the green light for trial.”

Hard-hit by the two nor’easters in one week, Governor Charlie Baker is preparing to file a Massachusetts climate change bill. Speaking on WGBH radio, Baker stated: “We’re going to have to come up with a different strategy around resilience. And 35 Vermont communities have voted to support a statewide effort to combat climate change.

On March 21st, a federal court in San Francisco will hold the first-ever hearings on climate science. Oil giants, and the California cities suing them, will present “tutorials” about basic climate science, as well as who knew what, and when.

As Atlantic Coast Pipeline moves to construction, groups urge Northam to act. Northam has stated he is “confident in the public servants at the DEQ”, although the DEQ previously ceded the review of VA water crossings to the Army Corps of Engineers, and the DEQ’s performance has not inspired confidence in this process to date.

Wednesday, March 14th DEQ Air Pollution Control Board Hearing will take place at 4411 Early Road, Harrisonburg at 5PM. Hearing concerns the proposed carbon emissions cap for Virginia (joining the RGGI states).

CLIMATE

The polar vortex strikes again.  The north pole has been warmer than Europe in recent weeks. Arctic regions are overheating, with areas up to 35-50 degrees (F) above normal temperatures. Springtime is coming to the north far earlier than in the past. A recent study proposes a simple rule of thumb: For every 10 degrees you go north from the equator, spring is now arriving four days earlier than a decade ago.

Snowpack has declined 15-30% in the American west over the past century, partly because what once fell as snow now falls as rain. The amount of water normally stored as the region’s snowpack is roughly equivalent to all the water stored in regional reservoirs, including Lake Mead. Parts of the southwestern US depend heavily on melting snowpack during summer months.

Is mainstream news starting to talk about rising sea levels? A forthcoming report reviewed by NPR asserts that “today’s storm will be tomorrow’s high tide… it’s coming.” NOAA calculations indicate that in many coastal areas (including Norfolk, VA), tidal flooding “is going to become chronic rather quickly… It’s not going to be a slow, gradual change.”  And this week the Boston Globe reported: “The storms we’re seeing now, people thought this was decades in the future”. Increased flooding risk applies to inland areas as well: A new study finds 41 million Americans living in flood zones, over three times larger than FEMA’s official estimate.

A new study finds it still possible to hold global warming to 1.5°C by 2100, if global emissions peak by 2020, decline rapidly thereafter, and massive amounts of carbon are removed from the atmosphere in the second half of the century. At our current rate of global emissions, our carbon budget of 230GtCO2 for a 1.5C future will be exhausted in six years.

ENERGY

California set a new state solar record this week, briefly supplying 49.95% of electric grid demand from solar sources. Investors are eager to supply more, but regulators may put on the brakes while they figure out how to manage such rapid growth.

March 5-9 has been CERAWeek in Houston, an annual conference once described as “The Burning Man of energy”.  This year’s conference agenda is here. Reporting on the conference, Ed Crooks (Financial Times) opines that oil industry leaders seem to think of the transition away from fossil fuels the way most people think about dying…”They understand it intellectually, but hope it is a long way off.” The CEO of Saudi Aramco feels renewables will not compete with oil in cost or scale “for some time”, and BP’s CEO says “the world will need a lot of oil for a long time to come”.  Environmental Defense Fund’s Mark Brownstein offers a different view: “Everyone here seems to be certain the energy transition will be steady and orderly…but in the past few years we have seen the shale boom, and the plunging cost of solar power…we should be prepared for the possibility that it will be sudden and chaotic. Complacency is a strategic mistake.”

As expected, the US remains an outlier, even in an audience of fossil industry leaders, all of whom acknowledge growing concern about global warming. According to Financial Times’ Ed Crooks, Rick Perry was clearly “out of step with the industry in his refusal to engage with the issue in any detail”.

These are heady days for the US shale oil industry, with production (10 million barrels per day) on par with Russia and Saudi Arabia. Thanks to a late-2016 agreement to cut back production signed by leading global oil producers (including Russia and OPEC nations), world oil prices are up 15-20% from a year ago. Current prices are adequate to support the higher costs of fracking for US shale oil, and the US may surpass Russia this year as the world’s largest oil producer.

Does all this mean “peak oil” is dead? Don’t bet on it, warns Richard Heinberg. While declining world oil production has been “rescued” by US shale oil production, it has been the result of some economic sleight-of-hand. The fracking boom, Heinberg explains, occurred in the context of the 2008 economic collapse, and a subsequent flood of nearly 10 trillion dollars created by central banks in the US, Europe, England and China, making essentially unlimited, very cheap money available to the nascent fracking industry. The industry is, Heinberg explains, unprofitable on the whole.  Heinberg sees a huge bubble of debt hanging over the industry, foreseeing it will burst at some point with far-reaching consequences.

Another message from CERAWeek was the wide range of opinions about the impact of climate policies and electric vehicles on oil demand. Mary Barra, General Motors CEO, assert GM’s “commitment to an all-electric, zero-emissions future…regardless of any modifications in fuel-economy standards”. Stiil, execs agreed they “weren’t losing any sleep”,  voicing confidence in the low penetration of EVs to date. [For a very different view on how fast EVs might take over, check out Stanford professor Tony Seba’s vision of “Clean Disruption”.]

My general impression from reporting on CERAWeek is to side with the views expressed by Brownstein and Heinberg.  The US shale oil industry is dependent for its survival on two things:1) continuing international production restraint to prop up oil prices, and 2) the continuing river of cheap money that began after the 2008 meltdown. Both are risky assumptions. In addition, in 2008, it took only a 5% drop in US oil demand to drop gasoline prices from $4 to $1.80 or so. The industry is exquisitely sensitive to small changes. The climate window is indeed closing fast, and we are unlikely to have a shot at 1.5°C. But a lot of exciting things are happening, too.

Policy and Politics

Robert J. Samuelson devoted his weekly economics column in The Washington Post this week to the BP report I linked to last week.  His message was not a happy one.  Without a price on carbon, the best that can be achieved by the reductions in fossil fuel use projected by BP is to keep up with population and economic growth.  Therefore, it is interesting that on Wednesday, a coalition of 34 student groups from around the country announced the formation of Students for Carbon Dividends, a bipartisan group calling for adoption of the Baker-Schulz carbon fee and dividend plan.  A new report by the Stockholm Environment Institute argues that it is insufficient to try and limit demand for fossil fuels.  Rather, it will be necessary to limit supply.  Using California as a case study, they illustrate the impact of supply limitation.  One factor influencing fossil fuel extraction is government subsidies.  A new report from the OECD combined figures obtained by them and by the International Energy Agency to provide a more comprehensive estimate of global subsidies.  The estimate is $373 billion for 2015.  While this value is substantial, it is less than the estimate for 2014.

Time has a detailed look at what the EPA website looks like after a year of climate change censorship.  Last October the EPA quietly released a report on the development of a Climate Resilience Screening Index (CRSI) that looks at a number of factors that influence resilience.  The report examines the CRSI of each county in the U.S.  A Silicon Valley startup will use new and better modeling techniques to help companies anticipate the impacts of climate change in their business decisions.  Generation Z has been in the news a lot recently about gun control, but they are also active about climate change, planning a nationwide series of climate marches on July 21.

Department of Interior emails obtained by The New York Times reveal that the location and availability of fossil fuel reserves was a key factor in the Trump administration’s decision to roll back protections for the Bears Ears National Monument.  Congress must pass a new spending bill by March 23 to avoid a government shutdown.  More than 80 anti-environmental-policy riders are included in either the House-passed version of the new bill or in Senate drafts.  I have referred to Virginia’s interest in joining the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI).  Now Environment America, in collaboration with the Frontier Group, has analyzed the economic impact of RGGI and found it to be highly successful.

Climate

A new report published in February by the U.S. Forest Service Northern Research Station cautions that “Forests in Vermont and across the northeastern United States are under increasing stress from changing temperatures and precipitation regimes and increasing prevalence of invasive insects and disease.”  One way precipitation is changing is by becoming more intense.  For example, analyses done by Climate Central showed that nationwide trends of days with one-, two-, and three-inch rainfalls are increasing.

The weather continues to be strange, with Europe being colder than many places in the Arctic.  Warming has been unprecedented there, causing some to ask whether it has reached a tipping point.  Meanwhile, in the U.S., spring is running 20 days or more ahead of schedule in parts of the Ohio River Valley and the Mid-Atlantic.

Articles this week examined the possible impacts of climate change on two charismatic penguins: Adélie and king penguins.  Adélie penguins living along the Antarctica Peninsula’s western side are having difficulties because of climate change, but the recent discovery of a huge colony in the Danger Islands on the Peninsula’s eastern side holds out hope for the species.  King penguins breed on islands that are far enough north to be ice free, but travel to the Antarctic Polar Front (APF) to obtain food for their chicks.  As the planet warms, the APF will move south, increasing the distance they must travel, ultimately making that travel untenable.  Thus, they will be required to move to new breeding grounds, but their availability is an open question.

According to a new paper in Nature Climate Change, 2% of global mangroves, which are excellent carbon sinks, were lost between 2000 and 2012.  Furthermore, the amount of carbon released by clearing mangroves amounts to 27m tons of CO₂ per year, equivalent to the annual emissions of Myanmar.

According to a new report released Monday by the Center for Climate and Security, more than 200 coastal military installations had been flooded by storm surges, compared to about 30 in 2008.  One place with a U.S. military connection being impacted by rising seas is the Marshall Islands in the Pacific.  Life there is difficult for many reasons.  In a three-part series, Mashable follows several Marshall Islanders as they grapple with an uncertain future: Part I, Part II, Part III.

Energy

The Virginia legislature has passed a bill that brings Dominion Energy and Appalachian Power under a new rate review scheme that also imposes new restrictions on their regulators at the State Corporation Commission.  The legislation allows the two utilities to offset profits above their authorized rate of return with spending on eligible projects, which must be approved by the commission in advance.  In a guest post at Power for the People VA, Thomas Hadwin explained why it is important for Virginia to get those projects right.

A new paper published Tuesday in the journal Energy and Environmental Science shows that a conversion to an 80% solar and wind-based energy system is possible in the U.S., but it will require significant advancement in energy storage technologies or hundreds of billions of dollars of renewable energy infrastructure.  Renewable energy resources were as important as natural gas in driving down CO₂ emissions in the U.S. over a seven-year period beginning in 2007, according to a new peer-reviewed study in the journal Energy Policy.  Data published on Tuesday by the not-for-profit environmental impact researcher CDP found that 101 of the more than 570 cities on its books sourced at least 70% of their electricity from renewable sources in 2017, compared to 42 in 2015.  Utility Dive’s “2018 State of the Electric Utility Survey” of more than 600 U.S. and Canadian electric utility professionals shows utilities expect to add more solar, wind, and natural gas resources, while nuclear stagnates and coal declines.  Rocky Mountain Institute released a new report on the benefits of community-scale solar.

Statoil’s floating wind farm achieved a capacity factor of 65% from November through January.  For comparison, the U.S. on-shore wind fleet had an average capacity factor of about 37% last year.  General Electric will develop a new off-shore wind turbine in France.  The new turbine will be the largest on the market, will produce 12 MW, and stand 853 ft tall.  One concern with wind farms, whether off-shore or on-shore, is bird mortality.  New research using satellites is providing better data about flyways and bird hotspots on the U.S. east coast that can be used by wind farm developers to reduce mortality.

New analysis from The Brattle Group concludes the U.S. market for energy storage could reach 50 GW, as long as battery prices continue their decline and state and federal policies encourage the resource.  One problem with lithium ion batteries is that they perform poorly when they are cold.  A team of Chinese scientists has developed a new battery that works well at temperatures as low as -70°C, but it produces only a low voltage.

Silicon-based solar cells have a theoretical maximum efficiency of 29%.  Consequently, because perovskite absorbs solar energy in another part of the spectrum, layering silicon and perovskite solar cells has the potential to harvest more energy from the sun.  Adam Vaughan explored this and other ideas about what might happen next in the solar power industry.

China used 0.4% more coal in 2017 than in 2016, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday in its annual National Social and Economic Development communique.  This was the first increase since 2013.  However, as a portion of total energy consumption, coal usage fell 1.6% to 60.4% last year, while clean energy, including natural gas and renewables, rose 1.3% to 20.8% from 2016.

Last week the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute sponsored a panel discussion entitled “The Future of Energy Infrastructure in the U.S. and Implications for Clean Energy” and the Energy News Network summarized the major points, which help explain why building long-distance electric transmission lines is so complicated.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.