Month: February 2016

The big news this week was the death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia.  Andrew Revkin reviews his dissent in the 2007 case in which the Court ruled that EPA had the authority to regulate CO2 as a pollutant under the Clean Air Act.  Brad Plummer at Vox discusses how Justice Scalia’s death might influence the fate of the Clean Power Plan while Elizabeth Harball and Emily Holden document the variety of opinions and approaches among state regulatory agencies re the CPP.  In addition, Chris Mooney argues that electric power companies are likely to keep transitioning to renewable energy sources and natural gas at the expense of coal, regardless of what happens with the CPP.

As some states continue to work on their plans for complying with the CPP one option that they are considering is cap-and-trade, such as in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in the Northeast.  However, activists in the environmental justice movement argue that cap-and-trade will allow coal-fired power plants, with their associated health impacts, to continue to operate, thereby impacting people of color, a disproportionate number of whom live within 3 miles of such plants.

Grist has an interesting essay entitled “How Obama went from coal’s top cheerleader to its No. 1 enemy.”  It traces the history of the Clean Power Plan, arguing that it was an inevitable outcome of 50 years of Clean Air Act regulations.  Meanwhile, the Virginia Senate voted on Monday to extend the coal tax credit until 2020.  The credit had been scheduled to sunset at the end of this year.

In the wake of last week’s decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to delay implementation of the Clean Power Plan until the Appeals Court rules on it, many commentators conjectured that a ruling against the Plan would be the end of the Paris Agreement.  Ed King of Climate Home disagrees and argues that local conditions in many developing countries will lead them to reduce their emissions regardless of what we do.  In addition, the diplomatic consequences of the U.S. pulling out of the Paris agreement would be very serious.

Even though some prominent Florida politicians deny or downplay climate change, local communities in the state are working to minimize the impacts of sea level rise and determine the most effective strategies for adapting to it.  One Florida Republican politician who takes climate change seriously is Rep. Carlos Curbelo, who started the bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus with Rep. Theodore Deutch, a Democrat.  Marcia Yerman has an interesting interview with Rep. Curbelo.

On Tuesday Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe joined governors from 16 other states in signing The Governor’s Accord for a New Energy Future.  In doing so the governors pledged to accelerate their efforts to create a green economy in the US by boosting renewables, building better electricity grids and cutting emissions from transport.

NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies has just released its analysis of Earth’s surface temperature data for January 2016.  They found that the global average temperature for January was 1.13 degrees C above the 1951-1980 average, setting a new record.  The previous record for January, set in 2007, was 0.95 C above the average.  El Nino hit its peak in January, which doubtless contributed to the new record. NOAA and the Japan Meteorological Agency also found January 2016 to be the hottest January on record.  The warming in the Arctic has been particularly acute, although perhaps not record setting.  Finally, The New York Times has published an interactive graphic showing the 2015 daily temperature and rainfall data for 3,116 cities provided by AccuWeather.  Record highs and lows are marked so you can easily see how your city (i.e., local airport weather station) fared.

​A new study published in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles has found that the North Atlantic Ocean has absorbed 50% more CO2 in the last decade than in the previous decade, thereby accelerating ocean acidification.  Another study, published in Scientific Reports, found that while mussels make more brittle shells in an acidic ocean they develop a better repair mechanism, allowing them to more rapidly repair cracks when they occur.

Warming waters in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans have caused increased mortality of sea stars and lobsters.

According to a new study algae-produced neurotoxins that are deadly in high doses ​have been found​ in 13 marine mammal species across Alaska, including as far north as the Beaufort and Chukchi seas.​  The study​,​ from ​NOAA’s Northwest fisheries center​, document​s​ a major expansion of the areas along the Pacific Coast of North America where harmful algal blooms are known to occur​.​  This expansion is thought to be associated with the warming of Pacific coastal waters.

​Scientists have developed a new “vegetation sensitivity index”, which indicates to what extent plant growth is affected by fluctuations in the climate​, and used a mapping system to illustrate that sensitivity.  The index includes three variables, temperature, water availability and cloud cover.​  The maps allow easy visualization of Earth’s ecosystems that are most sensitive to climate change.​

A new study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters has found that the United States could be responsible for between 30 and 60​%​ of the global growth in human-caused methane emissions since 2002​.​  Joe Romm has a very interesting commentary on the study, with a particularly valuable bibliography at the end.

Germany has a reputation as a leader in renewable energy.  Now it is hoping to move into a leadership role in bicycle commuting by adding biking highways that are removed from automobile traffic and dedicated to bicycles.

Author and activist Terry Tempest Williams bid on an oil and gas lease for 800 acres of BLM land in Utah in an effort to call attention to fossil fuel extraction on public lands.  N
early 100 protesters were escorted peacefully out of the auction when they refused to stop singing​ “I hear the voice of my great granddaughters saying, keep it in the ground.”​Unfortunately, an unintended consequence of the protest may be to drive the BLM to hold auctions on-line.​

Want to plant a tree each time you do an on-line search?  Well, this search engine will help you do that.  Katie Valentine at Climate Progress describes it for you.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

Last week I mentioned that the CAAV Steering Committee had read What We Think about When We Try Not to Think about Global Warming by Per Epsen Stoknes as part of our retreat.  Amelia Urry has an excellent summary on Grist based on an interview with the author.  In addition, Transition United States has a video that goes over the most important information in the first two parts of the book.

The big news this week is that on Tuesday the U.S. Supreme Court blocked implementation of EPA’s Clean Power Plan while the D.C. Circuit Court considers the merits of a challenge by more than two dozen states to its legality.  Martha Roberts, writing on the Environmental Defense Fund blog, makes the case for the Clean Power Plan.  As might be expected, some states have decided to hold off on the CPP, but others are continuing to develop their compliance plans and major utility companies are continuing with their plans to diversify their energy sources.

​Republican ​p​residential candidates Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush​ agreed last week to meet with a group of 15 South Florida mayors concerned about climate change’s impact on their state and on the country as a whole.​  And two Congressmen — Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R) and Rep. Theodore Deutch (D), both of Florida, filed paperwork ​last​ week to create the Climate Solutions Caucus.​  For an interesting and inspiring blog detailing much of the behind-the-scenes work​ that helped make the Caucus a reality, go here.

​It was no surprise last week when President Obama proposed a $10 a barrel tax on oil that Republicans in Congress were opposed to it.  It might be a surprise, however, that many economists are in favor of such a tax.​

​​A committee of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), a United Nations agency, agreed on Monday to the first emissions-reduction standards for aircraft​.  ​The agreement, which took six years to negotiate and must still be approved by ICAO’s governing council, was the subject of significant criticism by environmental groups.  In addition, two members of the faculty of the University of Western Australia don’t think much of the agreement.

Investors and industry analysts say that renewable energy will buck the trend of falling investment in oil and gas because it can offer long-term returns sheltered from political risk.  Consequently some long-term investors say the smart money is shifting away from oil and gas.  For example, Allianz and Bank of America​ are making their first investments in on-shore wind farms in the United States, with investments in two wind parks in New Mexico with a combined capacity of around 300 MW.​
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​According to a comment published Wednesday in the journal Nature: “those who manage other people’s money have a duty to control for ‘material risks’. In finance, that means risks that might trigger a 5% or more loss in investment value. Climate damage in the future is expected to be one such risk.”  Therefore, “clients and beneficiaries of investment firms might have a legal case to bring against their investors who stand idly by as emissions erode the value of their stock.”​

California added 20,000 new solar energy jobs in 2015, more than half the total positions added nationwide.  Furthermore, last year the solar industry added workers at a rate nearly 12 times faster than the overall economy.​  ​So why are companies like SolarCity experiencing dropping stock prices?  Also, what will happen as incentive programs expire?​

In its annual energy outlook, BP indicated larger growth in renewables than it had in the past, but continued to project strong use of oil and natural gas.  Others, however, thought their analysis did not change as much as it should have in light of the Paris agreement.

According to Jim Pierobon writing on The Energy Fix, data centers run by Amazon, Apple, and Google don’t get as much of their electricity from renewable sources as they claim.

Ivy Main had a blog post on The Energy Collective that summarizes the bills before the Virginia Legislature that deal with energy issues.  Unfortunately, most of them met delaying tactics, as described in her Power for the People VA blog.

Two papers just published on-line in Nature Climate Change focus on melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica and their long-term impacts on sea level rise.  Robert McSweeney of Carbon Brief provides a summary of the articles while Damian Carrington of The Guardian provides a deeper discussion of the implications of the work.  In addition, Chris Mooney at The Washington Post explains the paper focusing on the Antarctic ice shelves and their roles as gate-keepers controlling the advance of the glaciers.  Andrew Freedman, writing on Mashable, considers the implications of the paper that looks far into the future.

Surprisingly, changes in rainfall and evaporation patterns since 2002 have caused more water to be stored on land, reducing sea level rise by around 20%, according to a new study published in Science.

​​Warming temperatures are causing about half of the world’s plants and animals to move location, an international conference in Australia heard Wednesday, with every major type of species affected.​

​Recent estimates suggest ​that ​as much as a third of ​greenhouse gas emissions could be offset by stopping deforestation and restoring forest land — and that this solution could be achieved much faster than cuts to fossil fuel​ use.​

Research published in this week’s Science indicates that the majority of middle- and high-school teachers teaching about climate change are unaware of the scientific consensus that it is caused primarily by human activities and teach climate change as an ongoing debate in the scientific community.​

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

Sorry to be late with this Weekly Roundup. The CAAV Steering Committee had its annual retreat on Saturday and in preparation for the meeting we read What We Think About When We Try Not to Think About Global Warming by Per Espen Stoknes (Chelsea Green Publishing, 2015, ISBN 978-1-60358-583-5). The subtitle is “Toward a New Psychology of Climate Action.” I highly recommend this book for anyone concerned about climate change, but particularly those engaged in climate action. I think its message is extremely important.

• The Zika virus is a major news item right now, but just how serious a threat is it to the U.S.? Writing in Slate, Eric Holthaus describes how climate change is impacting the spread of Aedes aegypti and the associated Zika virus, as well as an analysis of the disease’s potential impact in the U.S.
• A new report from the Niskanen Center, a fiscally conservative think tank, makes the case for why the coal industry should embrace a carbon tax. In addition, the International Monetary Fund has called for a carbon tax on shipping and aviation as a way of spurring innovation in those sectors.
• A developer of coal-fired power plants in India is seeking to install a photovoltaic solar energy array rather than a coal-fired thermal power plant at a site in Punjab because the economics of solar are more attractive. Meanwhile, in Africa the Rwandan government has partnered with Ignite Power to provide rooftop solar to 250,000 households by 2018. On another renewable energy front, China installed just under 29 gigawatts of new wind energy capacity in 2015, accounting for more than 46% of all wind power installed globally for the year. Meanwhile, Dong Energy, Denmark’s state-backed energy utility, announced this week that it will build a 1.2 gigawatt windfarm 72 miles off of the Yorkshire coast of the UK.
• A new analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Ceres finds that investment in the renewable energy industry must increase by around 75% over current projections in order to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement signed in December. Meanwhile, Karl Mathiesen argues in The Guardian that outdated grid infrastructure and inadequate storage options are two factors holding solar back.
• During 2015 declines in electricity generation from coal combined with increases in generation from natural gas and renewable sources resulted in coal contributing only 34% of our electricity production. Furthermore, natural gas now contributes 32% so it is likely that natural gas will surpass coal in 2016. More importantly, 70% of new generating capacity installed last year was renewable. This raises the question of how electric utilities will respond to more rooftop solar.
• Roz Pidcock at Carbon Brief is a really good “explainer” and this week she explains the difference between the surface and satellite temperature records. Although I have included other posts on this topic, I’m including this one because I think it is particularly good. Perhaps she should have been asked to explain the difference to John Christy who testified Tuesday at the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology chaired by Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas) during a hearing entitled “Paris Climate Promise: A Bad Deal for America.” One thing Pidcock explains is that the major heating of the atmosphere by an El Nino event occurs as the event is winding down. Consequently, England’s Met Office predicts that 2016 will be even warmer than 2015.
• At this time of year Arctic sea ice usually closes in around the northern and eastern coasts of Svalbard, 800 miles from the North Pole. But not this year. A recent cruise by a Norwegian ice-breaker found open water. Writing in Discover, Tom Yulsman describes the changes occurring in the Arctic and discusses their implications. Meanwhile, the area covered by Arctic sea ice in January was the lowest value recorded since record keeping began in 1979. It was 42,500 sq. miles less than the previous January record low, recorded in 2011.
• Although thermal expansion from warming waters is the major contributor to sea level rise on a global scale, many other factors can influence sea rise at a given locality. Unfortunately, several factors interact to make sea level rise along the U.S. east coast greater than the global average.
• During the winter of 2013/2014 relentless heavy rainfall and associated severe flooding caused extensive property damage in parts of southern England and Wales. A new study published Monday in Nature Climate Change has found that human-caused climate change increased the likelihood of the event by 43%. Two-thirds of the increase was caused by increased moisture in the atmosphere and one-third by changes in the path of the jet stream.
• One component of our climate system is natural variability, caused by the complex interactions among the various elements influencing climate. Natural variability is a major cause of all of the ups and downs (squiggles) in a global temperature chart. For some time now we have been experiencing an upward trend in temperature superimposed on those squiggles, i.e., global warming. An important question, however, is whether Earth would experience global warming in the absence of an external forcing, such as that caused by more CO2 in the atmosphere. In other words, could natural variability alone cause global warming. A study published Monday in Journal of Climate has found that it can’t, providing even more evidence that our current warming is indeed the result of increases in CO2.
• A new study by NOAA scientists published in the journal PLOS One has found that under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario, 16% of Atlantic marine species found off the U.S. coast from North Carolina to Maine are either very highly or highly vulnerable to climate change. Among the very highly vulnerable species are Atlantic Salmon and Bay Scallops. Eighty-two species were included in the study.
• The DC area, as well as other large cities in the northeast, has been experiencing fewer, but larger, snow storms than in the past. Jason Samenow of The Washington Post weather gang examines the possible link between this and global warming.
• A study published Thursday in the journal Geophysical Research Letters suggests that the southwestern U.S. may have already drifted into a drier climate state. The study did not attempt to determine whether the change was due to climate change or natural climate variability.
• A new study, published in the journal Nature Scientific Reports, shows that more than half of the highest CO2-emitting countries rank among the least vulnerable to climate change and nearly two-thirds of the countries with low or moderate CO2 emissions are acutely vulnerable to the effects.
  The new study provides a new way for policymakers to quantify inequality when it comes to tackling climate change.
• Recarbonizing Earth’s soils can reduce the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, thereby decreasing global warming, while simultaneously increasing soil productivity and increasing food security, according to soil scientists and some farmers.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.