Month: October 2015

• Bill McKibben imagines what it might have been like if Exxon had been up front about climate change. ExxonMobil has been pushing back against the investigative reports by Inside Climate News but in doing so they have overstated the uncertainty in climate science, according to John Cushman, Jr. of Inside Climate News.
• A study published recently in the journal Nature Communications indicates that California will face twice as many droughts and three times as many floods in 2080 compared to historical occurrences if we continue to emit CO2 and other greenhouse gases in a business-as-usual manner.
• Rep. Lamar Smith (R. Texas), chairman of the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, has inserted politics into climate science by demanding all records and data related to a paper published in Science during the summer by NOAA scientists showing that the pause or hiatus in global warming had not actually occurred. This caused ranking committee member Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D. Texas) to send a strong letter to Rep. Smith. Late Tuesday NOAA refused to provide Smith with all of the records he demanded, citing confidentiality concerns and the integrity of the scientific process. A NOAA spokeswoman said “We have provided data, all of which is publicly available online, supporting scientific research, and multiple in-person briefings…. We stand behind our scientists who conduct their work in an objective manner.” Mashable has a good overview.
• I’ve posted information previously about the surface melting on Greenland and its importance to sea level rise (20 ft if all Greenland ice melted). This article is a close-up look at a research team collecting data on melt rates to make more accurate estimates of how melting is proceeding. I recommend it for two reasons. First, the photography and the graphics are spectacular and the story is fascinating. Second, it provides an excellent illustration of the possible impacts of Rep. Lamar Smith’s war on climate science.
• Differences between developed and developing nations resurfaced at the climate negotiations in Bonn last week in preparation for the December Paris climate summit. Although attempts had been made prior to the Bonn meeting to pare the draft document down to a size that would be manageable in Paris, issued were raised that caused the document to more than double in length. Sophie Yeo of Carbon Brief provides an analysis of what transpired.
• The pledged reductions in greenhouse gas emissions received so far in advance of the Paris climate summit are insufficient to keep warming below 2 degrees C by 2100. Rather, they will allow 2.7 degrees of warming to occur if they are all carried out.
• The Paris climate summit may well signal the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era. One result could be increased vulnerability of fossil fuel companies to legal damages, either from those who have suffered from climate-related impacts or from investors if those companies downplay the decreased value of fossil fuel reserves. Meanwhile, the president of Appalachian Power, West Virginia’s largest electric utility, told a group of energy executives that coal is not coming back, regardless of what happens with the U.S. EPA Clean Power Plan.
• We all know that portions of West Virginia have suffered economically as natural gas has replaced coal for electric power generation in parts of the U.S. We may be less familiar with the fact that portions of China have also suffered economic loss as a result of decreased demand for coal.
• A new poll conducted by the University of Texas at Austin has found that 90% of Democrats, 59% of Republicans and 75% of the general public now accept the scientific consensus on climate change.
• Nuclear fusion occurs when two atoms are squeezed together so tightly that they merge, releasing a large amount of energy. It is the reaction that fuels the sun. For years, people have sought to achieve and sustain nuclear fusion here on Earth because it would provide an almost limitless supply of energy without producing either greenhouse gases or radioactive waste. Unfortunately, attainment of fusion has been very difficult, in spite of billions of dollars being invested by governments around the world. Now venture capitalists are stepping in to fund private companies pursuing different approaches. The question is whether they will succeed where government efforts have failed.
• A new study published in Nature Climate Change has found that some cities in the Persian Gulf region will be too hot and humid for human habitation by the end of the century if humans continue emitting CO2 in a business-as-usual manner. Robert McSweeney of Carbon Brief has a good background explanation while Joby Warrick of The Washington Post puts the study in a broader context.
• Cristina Maza of the Christian Science Monitor provides an overview of carbon pricing schemes. The New Carbon Economy has released a new working paper entitled “Implementing Effective Carbon Pricing.” It shows that carbon pricing works and can be consistent with strong economic growth. Nevertheless, carbon pricing is not likely to be part of the Paris climate accords.
• A report and policy statement released by the American Academy of Pediatrics states that climate change poses a significant threat to children from natural disasters, heat stress, air pollution, infectious diseases, and effects on food and water. The report’s lead author is from Virginia Commonwealth University’s school of medicine.
• The cod fishery in the Gulf of Maine is collapsing because of rapidly warming waters and a failure to consider the impacts of that warming when setting quotas for commercial fishing. Meanwhile, further north in Canada the cod population is doing much better.
• Earlier this year we learned that Totten glacier in East Antarctica is rooted deep below sea level and therefore is subject to melting due to warm water from below. A new study finds that Totten glacier will be harder to destabilize than the West Antarctic glaciers, but is indeed subject to melting from below, although the rate at which that will occur is still uncertain.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

• In a study published in the journal Nature, economists at Stanford and UC Berkeley have found that failure to address climate change could lower per-capita GDP as much as 23% by 2100. This estimate is based solely on lost productivity due to warmer temperatures and does not consider the impacts of sea level rise and other factors on infrastructure, health, etc.
• On Friday the U.S. EPA published its Clean Power Plan (CPP) in the Federal Register. Immediately, 24 states joined in a law suit against EPA over the plan and two other states filed separate suits. Nevertheless, Tomas Carbonell, Director of Regulatory Policy and Senior Attorney for the Environmental Defense Fund, says that the CPP rests on a solid legal and technical foundation. If you would like to see a map indicating where each state stands, go here.
• A new analysis by the International Energy Agency of the pledges by over 150 nations prior to the Paris climate summit shows that while CO2 emissions will be slowed, the global emission rate will still be increasing by 0.5% a year in 2030.
• Based on Tuesday’s hearing before a subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, there appear to be a number of misconceptions about the upcoming Paris Climate Summit. Using testimony by Todd Stern, U.S. Special Envoy for Climate Change, Gwynne Taraska of the Center for American Progress refutes three common myths.
• Climate negotiators have their work cut out for them in Bonn in preparation for the Paris climate summit in December because developing nations are unhappy with the draft accord and are demanding a guarantee of climate finance provisions. Nevertheless, the French are in the middle of an unprecedented diplomatic drive to ensure that the Paris meeting is a success, resulting in a strong global accord.
• Because of accounting procedures adopted in previous climate negotiations, countries are responsible only for the CO2 emissions from within their own borders, regardless of where the fossil fuel being burned originated. This has allowed the U.S. to chide India and China about their increased use of coal, even though some of that coal came from the U.S. Not only that, the coal came from public lands (i.e., it belongs to American citizens) and is being sold to coal companies at a deep discount. Such situations make it difficult for us to be taken seriously in climate negotiations.
• On its surface, burning trees (as wood pellets) to generate electricity appears to be carbon neutral because if the land is replanted with trees, over time the CO2 emitted by burning will be reabsorbed as new trees grow. Many scientists argue, however, that the practice of burning trees to generate electricity is not really a good thing to do because of the long time required to grow new trees and because of the loss of biodiversity associated with their harvest. John Upton of Climate Central explores the issues associated with burning trees in a multi-part series: Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3. This issue is particularly important to Virginia.
• Krill is the foundation of the entire Antarctic aquatic food chain, as well as an important target for commercial fishing. Thus it is disturbing to find that ocean acidification could reduce Antarctic krill production by 20 to 70 percent by 2100.
• On Monday another 68 companies signed onto a voluntary White House initiative, “American Business Act on Climate”, to reduce their climate impact, joining 13 that had joined in June.
• For some time now the Pentagon has recognized climate change as a threat multiplier from a national security perspective. This has led to slow recognition of climate change as a national security issue. Analysts caution, however, that there are both pluses and minuses in framing climate change in that manner.
• Utility-scale solar energy (USSE) requires large tracts of land. For example, according to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the deployment of 500 GW of USSE would require a land area equivalent to that of South Carolina. Although we often assume that desert land has low biodiversity, that is often not the case. Consequently, care must be exercised in the siting of USSE facilities to minimize the loss of biodiversity.
• An interesting new study in The Anthropocene Review examines human interactions with the biosphere and their potential ability to drive the sixth great extinction. The study did not focus exclusively on climate change, but rather posited four drivers of current changes on Earth: (1) global homogenization of flora and fauna, (2) human domination of net primary production, (3) human-directed evolution of other species, and (4) increasing interaction of the biosphere with the technosphere. Jeremy Hance has an excellent essay summarizing the study in The Guardian.
• Indonesia has experienced an exceptionally large number of wildfires this year. Furthermore, because over half of those fires are in peat formations, since September the daily CO2 emissions have exceeded the daily CO2 emissions from all U.S. economic activity.
• According to NOAA data, September 2015 was the hottest September on record. In addition, so far 2015 is progressing as the hottest year on record by a wide margin.
• The latest installment of Inside Climate News‘ investigative report on Exxon focuses on its role in sowing doubt about climate change by stressing uncertainty.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

• In a Commentary published in the journal Nature Geoscience UK climate scientist Kevin Anderson accuses his fellow climate scientists of deliberately downplaying the challenge of keeping warming below 2 degrees C. His analysis concludes that to have even a slim chance of staying under that limit will require a revolution in how we both consume and produce energy. This is a very sobering commentary, as discussed by Ed King, who also cites a paper published this week in Environmental Research Letters that warns that the combined climate plans of the U.S., the EU, and China leave “little room” for emissions from other countries if we are to stay below the carbon budget.
• In a new series of articles, The Guardian asks “Which countries are doing the most to stop dangerous global warming?”. In those articles they examine the pledges of 14 nations ahead of the November Paris climate conference.
• N. Gregory Mankiw is a conservative economics professor at Harvard, yet he advocates a carbon tax as the best way to fight climate change. To find out why, read this interview by Amanda Little in Grist. Then read what Eduardo Porter has to say about “Bringing Republicans to the Climate Change Table.”
• A new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change examined precipitation in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California to determine how frequently it has been as low as this past year. They used precipitation records back to about 1930 and tree ring data back to around 1500. They found that the current drought was the worst in the entire 500 year record. Furthermore, with further warming the frequency of such a drought is likely to increase.
• In an article published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences researchers from the US and Germany examine the possible fate of US cities in the face of sea level rise. A key finding is that millions of Americans may already live in cities destined to be inundated. Whether they will or not depends on whether we reduce our CO2 emissions and the fate of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Andrew Freedman provides a more detailed analysis in Mashable.
• Climate feedbacks have a very important impact on the outcome from adding CO2 to the atmosphere. In fact, they are the major complicating factor that makes it difficult to know exactly how much Earth will warm in response to more CO2. Prof. Eric Wolff of the University of Cambridge in the UK has explained the term feedback and summarized the major ones acting on the climate system, indicating where uncertainties lie. His piece was prepared for a general audience.
• Boreal forests are Earth’s northern-most forests, ringing the globe and providing nearly a third of Earth’s forest cover. Unfortunately, they are in trouble because of the more rapid warming of the Arctic, thereby impacting the large number of species that live there. Jim Robbins summarizes the present state of the boreal forests and how they are changing in response to warming.
• A massive review of 632 published papers about the world’s oceans has found that climate change in combination with ocean acidification is reducing both the abundance and diversity of marine species. Unfortunately, there is little evidence for acclimation to acidification or temperature increases, except for microorganisms. This simplification of ocean ecosystems is likely to have major impacts on the ability of the oceans to support human life.
• The melting of the land ice on Antarctica will have a major impact on sea level rise. To get a better picture of how melting might proceed, a group of scientists conducted a study to see how rising air temperatures might effect surface melting. One finding was that whether humans act to curb CO2 emissions will have a major impact on the melt rate during the second half of this century.
• Three items from the oil front. BP’s top economist has admitted that some of the world’s oil will not be burned because of concerns over climate change. While many factors enter into decisions concerning oil exploration, it is encouraging to note that exploration for new oil reserves has been significantly curtailed. On Friday the Interior Department announced that it is cancelling oil lease sales for the Arctic Ocean for 2016 and 2017.
• Kristen Meek and Rebecca Gasper, writing for the World Resources Institute, outline ways Virginia can meet its obligations under the EPA Clean Power Plan.
• Recently I have put in links to articles dealing with the cold blob in the North Atlantic and evidence for an impact on North Atlantic ocean circulation. Now Chris Mooney of The Washington Post reports on two new articles that relate to this circulation and its importance in influencing global air temperatures.
• A new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences indicates that if we continue to burn fossil fuels in a business as usual manner for the rest of the century, the amount of the Amazon forest subject to severe drought could triple. This, in turn, could lead to tree death, with the release of the carbon in them as CO2, exacerbating the problem.
• Perhaps it’s the crazy weather we’ve been having, but according to a new poll, there has been a significant increase in the percent of Americans who believe that climate change is happening and that humans are influencing it.
• Government forecasters expect the strong El Nino to cause the northern states to have a milder and drier winter and the southern states to have a cooler, wetter winter.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

• The United Nations has published a new, slimmed-down draft of the global climate agreement to be negotiated in Paris in December. This document is 20 pages long (from a previous 90) but is filled with bracketed phrases that still must be negotiated. India has already voiced its objection to it.
• Official negotiations will not be the only thing going on the Paris climate talks in December. Rather, grassroots groups such as 350.org will be putting on “Climate Games” to emphasize red lines that they fear negotiators will cross.
• Hoesung Lee, a long-standing vice chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has been elected chair. Lee is a professor of climate change economics at the Graduate School of Energy and the Environment at (South) Korea University.
• Twenty countries considered to be very vulnerable to climate change are forming a new group, the V20 (V for vulnerable), to give them more leverage in pressing for action against climate change. One thing they hope to achieve is “improved access to international climate change finance.”
• Because so much rain fell on South Carolina over the weekend all major media outlets covered the event. The question is, what happened to cause so much rain. Andrew Freedman and Chris Mooney posted analyses of the confluence of events that led to so much rain.
• Changing weather conditions in sub-Saharan Africa over the past two years have put 60 million people at risk of starvation.
• New research published in the journal Global Environmental Change has found that the exposure of pregnant women to low precipitation and very hot days can result in low birth weight babies.
• In a study recently published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences researchers report that high temperatures are a major factor contributing to dengue outbreaks Southeast Asia. Although other factors also influenced outbreaks, high temperature was the major factor.
• NASA’s climate change newsletter for October came out this week and two of the articles are about Greenland ice and what is happening to it. One focuses on the research of Eric Rignot, a glaciologist, and the other is about the new project Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG). Both are short and worth the time to read.
• The first six months of ocean heat data for 2015 are now available and they show a continued increase in the heat content of Earth’s oceans.
• As in 1998 and 2010 massive coral bleaching is occurring world-wide in response to higher ocean temperature. While both previous events were each one year long, this one is poised to occur over two years, making it potentially the largest such event ever. Scientists fear that over 4,500 sq. miles of coral could be affected.
• Greenpeace has warned that forest and peat fires in Indonesia are poised to pump more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere this year than the UK’s total annual emissions.
• SolarCity has announced that its new solar panels convert 22.5% of incident sunlight into electricity, the highest conversion rate on the market. This will allow them to reduce the cost of rooftop solar installations for homes and businesses.
• Continued year-after-year budget cuts for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, one of DOE’s “national labs,” is undermining their efforts to engage in long-term, cutting-edge research for developing the next generation of solar panels.
• Inside Climate News has released parts IV and V of its investigative report on ExxonMobil and climate change. In part IV it examines Exxon’s dilemma over the Natuna natural gas field under the South China Sea, which they acquired rights to in the 1970’s. To date they have not developed that field because of the high amounts of carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulfide in it. In part V Exxon’s role in the potential development of synthetic liquid fuels from coal and tar sands is examined.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

• Last week I included an article about the dramatic growth of the fossil fuel divestment movement. In this article, Shawn McCarthy discusses the impacts this is having on the stocks of fossil fuel companies.
• In this article in Mashable, Bill McKibben reflects on the divestment movement and other aspects of the battle against climate change.
• As a result of disappointing findings from its exploratory drilling in the Arctic, Shell has announced suspension of Arctic drilling for the “foreseeable future.”
• Climate Interactive, a Washington-based climate research group, released an analysis on Monday that found that the emission reduction pledges received to date still leave Earth on a path to 6.3 degrees F of warming compared to pre-industrial times. Later in the week Climate Action Tracker released its analysis, which found that the pledges would hold warming to 4.9 degrees F. While both are less warming than would occur without the emission reductions, they are still above the level countries have agreed to. An important thing about the pledges that we shouldn’t lose sight of is that they do reduce our global emission rates, which buys us a little more time before we reach the carbon budget, as discussed by Joe Romm.
• A new study released this week has found that countries that belong to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have decoupled their economic growth from their CO2 emissions.
• Whether you are a carnivore, climate carnivore, flexitarian, vegetarian, or vegan I think you will find John Sutter’s piece on the climate impacts of meat to be of interest. Those of you who have spent part of your lives in Texas will appreciate his description of brisket, particularly the pictures, even if you no longer eat beef. Brings back memories, although I will say I don’t recall ever being served a 1 lb helping of brisket.
• One consequence of the Inside Climate News investigation of Exxon’s (now ExxonMobile) climate change research in the 1980’s, which showed that their own scientists were warning of the link between climate change and the burning of fossil fuels, is that a number of groups and individuals are considering litigation.
• Many people are wondering what outcome is required from the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 21) in Paris for it to be considered a success. Anthony Hobley of the Carbon Tracker Initiative provides a set of criteria. One concern about the conference is how much aid to developing countries the developed countries will commit to. In the past developed nations have promised to provide $100 billion annually, but pledges have fallen short of that value. Now French President Francois Hollande has pledged to increase France’s contribution from $3.3 billion annually to $5.6 billion by 2020.
• Six large U.S. Banks have called for a strong international agreement on climate change. They said that putting a price on carbon is essential to unlocking investments in clean energy. In addition, Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England warned of the huge financial risk exposure faced by the insurance and other industries as a result of climate change and 15 insurance executives echoed his call for action.
• In the U.S. large trucks burn a lot of fuel and thus make a significant contribution to our greenhouse gas emissions. That is why the EPA and the NHTSA have jointly issued new proposed standards that are currently being commented on. Innovative companies are reminding everyone that the technologies required to meet the new standards are already available so the agencies should go further to drive the deployment of more advanced technologies.
• Rachel Notley, Alberta’s new premier, has stated that she sees no long-term future in fossil fuels and predicts that Alberta will wean itself from them. Perhaps the oil companies should do the same, since they are having a harder time making money in the oil business.
• The Atlantic has a challenging and thought-provoking article entitled “If Everyone Gets Electricity, Can the Planet Survive?”
• Last week I linked to an article by Chris Mooney in The Washington Post about the cold blob in the North Atlantic. This week he had a followup article as well as one about the concern of scientists for the stability of the glaciers on West Antarctica.
• On Thursday, ten leaders from some of the world’s biggest food companies called upon the U.S. government to support a strong global agreement on combating climate change.
• India submitted its plan for reducing CO2 emissions to the UN in preparation for the Paris meeting in December. It has pledged to get 40% of its electricity from renewable sources and cut the carbon intensity of its economy by 35% by 2030.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.